Fomenka

OIL Medium Term Update

TVC:USOIL   CFDs on WTI Crude Oil
It has been a long time since January when I posted my medium term outlook and I reckon the time has come to update it. It has been both my skills development and the growing evidence that someting needs to be done with the longer term picture.

First of all, I was never fully comfortable with subtle E of (B) and the shape of the triangle (B). Also, I did not like anemic 1 of (C), though recently I changed it to a more pronounced leading diagonal that I could not confirm with UKOIL (Brent) chart and that kept me restless.

Today, reflecting on my performance over the past several months I made a couple of conlusions
1) I have to start allowing less organic looking single zigzags (abc) and double zigzags (wxy) in my counts, where a third, terminal wave is much less than the first one. It happens a lot in real life. Thanks to Mark Heavens for pointing this to me once. I will provide reference to his profile in rely to your comments should you ask me. TV rules forbid to do it here. With that I am replacing (A)(B)(C) with (W)(X)(Y) on USOIL chart.
2) I have to expand my thinking and allow more time and space for corrective structures that I normally do. I was suspicious of the small triangle (B) - and I think Mark told me that once. But only now I see a viable alternative - a running flat ABC of (X). (X) replaces (B).

This way the chart starts corresponding to UKOIL which has similar count now and to my outlook for the US stock market.

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