FX:USOIL   Crude Oil (WTI)
603 20 14
As I wrote in my last Twitter note, Crude is making a consolidation just above daily Kijun Sen.

Basically quite neutral on all time frames, but somehow the short term bias still looks slightly more bullish , until it holds above 43.

Weekly:
- Bearish Ichimoku setup still valid. Possible bullish wedge being built.
- Interesting note I read: This is already the longest streak in history, when WTI trades below its 200 days SMA!
- Heikin Ashi shows absolute undecision, consolidation after the massive spike from the lows.
- 49,50-50 is becoming a possible strategic reversal level!

Daily:
- Ichimoku setup is turning to neutral: Chikou Span hits past candles, Price trades between Tenkan and Kijun (above Kijun), Tenkan/Kijun are in weak bullish position, future Kumo shades price.
- Heikin Ashi pattern seems to be a noise here. I don't see problem with holding some longs until Price holds above 43.
- Watch for end Wave 2. If Third wave starts, that can send Price up minimum to the supp/res zone 47,5-49,50.

In case you hold long, or you consider to enter long in dips, you must focus on "43 - buffer" as a stop level.

Great charts. I agree with the importance of level 43. In the following 4hour chart, two targets are possible, i.e. 43.26 & 41.24. At the moment EMA100 is providing some temporary support (has done so previously on a few occasions).

snapshot
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It's great you linked in the 4H. I was thinking about to add that as well, but I did not want too much confusion. However it is clerly visible on 4H too how neutral the price action is within the Kumo! Also your short term down channel examination is good!
Thx vm!
+1 Reply
Hi, are those the waves ichimoku traders use or EW?
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cfetrader IvanLabrie
Hello. These are EW. The details are: wave(1)=1,2,3,4,5; wave(2)=a, b(kindly note the rise above 5; b-waves tend to spike some times) and c with a w-x-y sub-structure.
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@cfetrader: Thanks, but I was referring to Kumowizard's chart. As for your EW count, I'm not sure you can actually forecast crude oil with it, at least based on what Glenn Neely's opinion (founder of neowave). Now, if not using neowave, then you'd have no reason to subscribe to this train of thought, so no problem.
That being said Ichimoku is a great tool, and can help time corrections and predict which counts will work and which will fail. :)
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Kumowizard PRO IvanLabrie
Hi,
Strict Ichimoku followers don't really use anything else than Ichimoku system itself, which has everything built in it.
So these numbers I marked are just one additional idea, from me for those who like visual wave counts. Just a possibility to watcj, that's why I wrote 2 with "?".
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IvanLabrie PRO Kumowizard
Great, it does make sense though. Watching it closely.
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Hello! It's not 1-2 daily it's abc or wxy of larger wave 4 correctio upside and agree its still beraish longer term with last impusle down pending.
Your weekly resistance at 50+ level lies at C (Y) = 61.8% of A (W) for me it's another signal of importance of this level, thanks
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Thanks vm for your comment. May be. I am not a Wave expert to be honest, so it is always good to have more feedback from others. On thing we see as same: 49,50-50 is a strategic level.
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aibek Kumowizard
My updated view if interesting
USOIL. Possible ABCDE triangle still in progress with last drop
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aibek aibek
that is why your indicators are neutral so far as no break-out yet (43 or 46)
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Hello Kumowizard & AibekB,

If I may intervene in the EW discussion, the final C-wave of the crude oil correction is of an extended w-x-y-x-z type. Now, either 38 signifies the end of the z-wave and hence the bear cycle (with a slightly truncated C-wave) or there is an additional a-b-c to reach a new ultimate low of say 30. For an equal yield criterion concerning waves C & A, we need a value of 26 for oil, since the yield of wave A was about -77%.

snapshot
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aibek cfetrader
Hi CFETRADER!
Interesting count, thanks for different look!
I count it as ABC with C now of 5 waves down and we are in wave 4 of (5) of (C) of 2
+1 Reply
It is possible. If you look at my weekly chart, a trade above 50 would mean a break of the bullish wedge nd the major trendline too! However as Ichimoku would still be neutral with a thick Kumo cloud ahead, it is possible that Oil will still stuck in a downward channel for a while, after reaching 55-58. The possible channel is simple to define if you make a parallel copy of the lower line of the recent wedge, or on your chart the longer red arrow which matches the lower lows.

But anyway, I try not to be so predictive, because in this case I fix my mind into certain levels and scenarios, thus I can not stay flexible :-)
So I follow the price action until it lasts.

Really nice chart contribution from you again, thx vm !
+1 Reply
Agreed, definitely a corrective move up, now the whole count, no idea.
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Kumowizard PRO IvanLabrie
Just wrote in the other linked topic, that a close above 44,90 means a bullish Heikin Ashi candle print today, while a spike above 45,90 would mean a bullish flag breakout too.
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO Kumowizard
Excellent!
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Guys! start to watch CAD too! Of course the whole thing is an Oil proxy, but something is cooking there, looks like an increasing possibility of a pull back and reversal also in EURCAD. No need to chase it, maybe it is too early, but time to watch. Will post EURCAD charts later. USDCAD you can find on the link above.
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IvanLabrie PRO Kumowizard
Yes, something potentially big:
USDCAD: Update
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Kumowizard PRO IvanLabrie
1,29 is possible to reach... maybe in more waves.
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