Oil Short 20R

I see a fair chance of this move happening.

The ascending wedge pattern has just tapped into supply and market is shows some signs of weakness.

I am still holding my previous short and so this position I am entering is small.

Comment:

I am also planning a secondary entry if I am stopped out at this higher purple zone.

It will be valid up until 14:45 BST, so anything later than that is not a valid trade.

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I am moving my stop loss to breakeven (89.23).

I will be preparing for another move up first and then entering another short position.

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The ascending channel is still in play but was close to being broken today.

Stop loss is still at the red line but I can see a move up like yellow happening, I don't want to trail my stop too closely.

My conviction is about 30% chance of yellow happening so a good possibility.

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Trailing stop to 88.28

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I see the possibility of either of these patterns playing out, I may post a new idea nearer the time for another trading opportunity.

Stop loss is still kept at 88.28.

Comment:

I'm no longer favouring a move down on Oil. It's not looking bearish anymore to me. Might be worth waiting for a break (weekly close above) of that white trendline before cutting the short position just to keep things systematic. Intuitively however I'm finding it hard to see a sell off anytime soon.
If a sell off does happen I think it will find support in the $72-76 region rather than going significantly lower.