When appearing on the supposed top its meaning is the opposite: an exhaustion of an existing up-trend and an incoming correction. Also, Daily shows overbought and next important level of 51.72 is a 161.8 Fibonacci level from Wave number 1. Finally, if we check a weekly chart, it also has an important divergence.
I´m putting s Sell limit at 51.80 level, eventually if will be activated overnight. My first target is around 47 figures
Taking into account the current price levels, some new fundamental factors as the first oil rigs increase in 3 months and a small but increase in US oil production, the correction may easily tag 200 MA at 41 figures.
Good luck and let the market force be with us!
P.S. SL at 55 figures
Not expecting anything interesting before the US session anyway...
But first, let´s break and secure 50 figures!
I don´t remove a TP from 51 figures but on the US session they couldn´t really reverse the oil towards the top, so, although the decline has been stopped today, on Friday there may be some important profit take.
Will add some shorts once it crosses and secures 50.31 which is an 88 MA
Anyway, eventually we break down today or on Monday. Those who are not short yet, I would wait at least until 49.30 where all MAs and key resistances which held oil above 50 have been broken and secured
I´ll just update on which chart I´m following and some details on my positions.
1 Full position from 51.50
1 Full position from 50.31
1 full position 51.50-->50.50
1/4 Position 49.30-->49.00
Expecting a small push back on Monday and then add some more shorts to finish the job
Oil may be retracing to the old ascending trend line which is now located at approximately 50 figures. If breaks and holds the day above 49, I will close one full position opened at 50.50.
Current picture: as you can see we are about to get rid if a descending trend. Maybe just a test and we go down now or maybe we bounce from the 61.8 Fibo line and go somewhere to the 50.
Our options are:
- We can get to 78% fibo at 49.80, test 50 and go back on a laarge Wave C. As Wave A was quite short, only 2.5 figures, Wave C should be bigger and that´s where we can arrive to 43 figures.
- We don´t get rid of the descending trend and keep a slo-mo movement towards the 50% Fibo. If that happens, I will close my shorts and open longs, targeting same 50 figures.
- The worst option is that we go back to 50s, break and get back into the ascending trend. That will invalidate all setups and open a room for another run to 51.50-52 figures. It is the worst option in terms of time. Why is it possible? Because if the FED doesn´t hike, USD can be easily grounded by the market. If Yellen´s tone is dowish, it will be heavily grounded and all commodities should run up.