chartwatchers
Long

OIL - 200 SMA test again

FX:USOIL   Crude Oil (WTI)
4034 29 68
I'm hitting the road soon so it will be a short idea but wanted to post if someone wants to enter.
Oil             looks terrible now but I think there is no reason to print a panic selling at the end of the daily cycle.
When I was starting to short oil             a few days ago I thought it's going to be a HCL             decline but it's getting more and more serious now. If my cycle count is correct we are in the 2nd daily cycle of this intermediate cycle and printing the daily cycle low right now. This correction is too hard to be a HCL             ...
The other possibility that from the beginning of August till now we just had one daily cycle. I have seen this long daily cycle before so it's not impossible.

Actually is not important right now if it's the first or the 2nd daily cycle.... We are just tagging the 200 SMA and this point always a strong resistance and a possible turning point.
It's not impossible that we are going to break it marginally today or Monday but we shouldn't break below 40$ as it was the previous intermediate cycle low.

This is a risky trade we can fall 3-4$ from here easily so if you start the long with me don't go all in , maximum 10-15% margin impact. Have some dry powder for the lower levels...

The RSI is at ICL levels even if we are heading lower: so we should have a bounce here.
Comment: Wow. I see you started buying guys.
:D
Comment: We might have catched the exact bottom here on Friday.
We just need a swing and uploading more oil.
snapshot
Comment: Closing 50% of the position at 46.90$.
And did you check the last commitment of traders report ? Money managed shorts still low on the last report. I am long too but it was a big mistake at least until the week before the Austria producers meeting.
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Some one has forgotten about oil update... anxiously waiting.
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Apri, appreciate for your kind sharing of your view point...I only placed 10% of my position, my dry powder is ready for another nice entry point :)
As I know, patience is the key to make good profits :)
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joeycsw19 PRO joeycsw19
should be Arpi, sorry for my typo mistake :P
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Bullish things I see. Inverse head and shoulders pattern. At 200 say mov. Avg. comments please.
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USSRandolph USSRandolph
@USSRandolph, moving avg of WTI Crude Oil is 43.65 as of 11 Nov, 2016
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Well, no word from Arpi past 3 days, this is the fourth day. At his last entry price was @ 45.30 at the high. Oil is down approx $2.00 since then, around 5 %. Not terrible but not good either. I am no expert but in my opinion it is recoverable as price is at the 200 day mov avg and it Sears it could bounce from here. Conversely to Arpi's last entry, price did not go up from there and exceptional US stock market gains did not pull oil along with it. In my opinion oil COULD, NOT WILL, as I think Arpi would say, bounce from here. I think my losses over the past few days are recoverable. I am willing to give it a chance to recover but I absolutely HATE being in a position of having to recover losses. I will be watching closely and close out my position in UWTI as I deem appropriate. I have learned the hard way to not accept Arpi's statements about how a particular security or commodity WILL behave, nor do I accept the degree to which Arpi states oil, gold or LABU, for example, will increase or decrease. I have to trust my own instincts and in doing so I have missed some excellent gains but I also have avoided some terrible losses. I recommend to all of you, especially those of you who are less sophisticated investors to learn all you can, get all the information you can and protect yourself. Having said all that I must say that Arpi's ideas and interpretations are excellent and I have learned form him. I have also learned that using stochastics are "good enough" and accurate enough to be a good guide in trading without having to learn a mor complex system such as CYCLES as Arpi uses. I am by no means saying that cycles is not a good trading indicator... It is. I am just saying that stochastics are good enough and accurate enough, in combination with other indicators such as RSI, etc. is good enough for me. Good luck to all. Best wishes to you Arpi.
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USSRandolph USSRandolph
@USSRandolph, note, Sears should read as seems.
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Unfortunately seems close now to breaking down
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