Oil looks terrible now but I think there is no reason to print a panic selling at the end of the daily cycle.
When I was starting to short oil a few days ago I thought it's going to be a HCL decline but it's getting more and more serious now. If my cycle count is correct we are in the 2nd daily cycle of this intermediate cycle and printing the daily cycle low right now. This correction is too hard to be a HCL ...
The other possibility that from the beginning of August till now we just had one daily cycle. I have seen this long daily cycle before so it's not impossible.
Actually is not important right now if it's the first or the 2nd daily cycle.... We are just tagging the 200 and this point always a strong resistance and a possible turning point.
It's not impossible that we are going to break it marginally today or Monday but we shouldn't break below 40$ as it was the previous intermediate cycle low.
This is a risky trade we can fall 3-4$ from here easily so if you start the long with me don't go all in , maximum 10-15% margin impact. Have some dry powder for the lower levels...
The is at ICL levels even if we are heading lower: so we should have a bounce here.
We just need a swing and uploading more oil.
I just want to wait what's happening tonight at the elections.
If the result is tight and hysteria starts stocks could drop. The falling stocks could pull down oil again.
I want to see what's happening.
But 10% margin impact even from this price is not too risky.
The risk that you will get left behind is much higher now.