chartwatchers
Long

OIL - 200 SMA test again

FX:USOIL   Crude Oil (WTI)
3987 29 65
a month ago
I'm hitting the road soon so it will be a short idea but wanted to post if someone wants to enter.
Oil             looks terrible now but I think there is no reason to print a panic selling at the end of the daily cycle.
When I was starting to short oil             a few days ago I thought it's going to be a HCL             decline but it's getting more and more serious now. If my cycle count is correct we are in the 2nd daily cycle of this intermediate cycle and printing the daily cycle low right now. This correction is too hard to be a HCL             ...
The other possibility that from the beginning of August till now we just had one daily cycle. I have seen this long daily cycle before so it's not impossible.

Actually is not important right now if it's the first or the 2nd daily cycle.... We are just tagging the 200 SMA and this point always a strong resistance and a possible turning point.
It's not impossible that we are going to break it marginally today or Monday but we shouldn't break below 40$ as it was the previous intermediate cycle low.

This is a risky trade we can fall 3-4$ from here easily so if you start the long with me don't go all in , maximum 10-15% margin impact. Have some dry powder for the lower levels...

The RSI is at ICL levels even if we are heading lower: so we should have a bounce here.
a month ago
Comment: Wow. I see you started buying guys.
:D
a month ago
Comment: We might have catched the exact bottom here on Friday.
We just need a swing and uploading more oil.
snapshot
7 days ago
Comment: Closing 50% of the position at 46.90$.

Related Ideas

VirtualFax
a month ago
Spot on! I personally think there is a good chance to tag 42.5-ish area at the very least but only time will tell...
+1 Reply
archer08
a month ago
Thanks a lot Master. If CL broke out 200 MA, Can CL go below 40?
+1 Reply
Viking83 PRO
a month ago
Yes, as soon as I saw the dollar went parabolic towards the CAD I knew that that had to be the temporary bottom in oil and top in CAD/USD so I took a shot as well. Gonna be exciting to see how far the bounce will take us in the markets!
Reply
nexuz
a month ago
So far perfect entry mate :)
Reply
gotthejazz
a month ago
class timing!
Reply
nmvipe711
a month ago
My god man, how much did you just buy!!! ;)
Reply
val_trader
a month ago
It was a Spike due to a Saudi declaration... IMHO we're still in bearish mode
Reply
charlie12 PRO
a month ago
LOL your timing was ridiculous. I had a nice gain on OAS. Thanks for the post man.
Reply
andrej123456
a month ago
And what about weekly chart ?
Reply
snapshot


I think it hasn´t bottomed yet but it is close indeed! I hope it will complete the Cypher pattern and test the Hagopian line. Smells like a very nice Long from there! And smells Trump... USD down, commodities up
+2 Reply
DGyoshev
a month ago
entry at 45.60?
Reply
Fullmoon DGyoshev
a month ago
42,5
Reply
fxidgroup
a month ago
nice one...
but my TP at 40 :)
Reply
MindTrader
a month ago
WTI Crude
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Robwwa
a month ago
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-opec-meeting-algeria-idUSKBN1310QS
Reply
boxx40
a month ago
When are you planing to upload more oil? Or do you think the price will go down a bit?
Reply
chartwatchers PRO boxx40
a month ago
Techincally we are going up from now.
I just want to wait what's happening tonight at the elections.
If the result is tight and hysteria starts stocks could drop. The falling stocks could pull down oil again.
I want to see what's happening.
But 10% margin impact even from this price is not too risky.
The risk that you will get left behind is much higher now.
Reply
Tj PRO
a month ago
Arpi, could you please give an update on oil.

Is it time to buy oil uet or wait? Thank you!!
Reply
AshYo
a month ago
Any update on this as Trump won? what is the impact on oil?
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2use
24 days ago
Unfortunately seems close now to breaking down
Reply
USSRandolph
24 days ago
Well, no word from Arpi past 3 days, this is the fourth day. At his last entry price was @ 45.30 at the high. Oil is down approx $2.00 since then, around 5 %. Not terrible but not good either. I am no expert but in my opinion it is recoverable as price is at the 200 day mov avg and it Sears it could bounce from here. Conversely to Arpi's last entry, price did not go up from there and exceptional US stock market gains did not pull oil along with it. In my opinion oil COULD, NOT WILL, as I think Arpi would say, bounce from here. I think my losses over the past few days are recoverable. I am willing to give it a chance to recover but I absolutely HATE being in a position of having to recover losses. I will be watching closely and close out my position in UWTI as I deem appropriate. I have learned the hard way to not accept Arpi's statements about how a particular security or commodity WILL behave, nor do I accept the degree to which Arpi states oil, gold or LABU, for example, will increase or decrease. I have to trust my own instincts and in doing so I have missed some excellent gains but I also have avoided some terrible losses. I recommend to all of you, especially those of you who are less sophisticated investors to learn all you can, get all the information you can and protect yourself. Having said all that I must say that Arpi's ideas and interpretations are excellent and I have learned form him. I have also learned that using stochastics are "good enough" and accurate enough to be a good guide in trading without having to learn a mor complex system such as CYCLES as Arpi uses. I am by no means saying that cycles is not a good trading indicator... It is. I am just saying that stochastics are good enough and accurate enough, in combination with other indicators such as RSI, etc. is good enough for me. Good luck to all. Best wishes to you Arpi.
Reply
USSRandolph USSRandolph
24 days ago
@USSRandolph, note, Sears should read as seems.
Reply
USSRandolph
24 days ago
Bullish things I see. Inverse head and shoulders pattern. At 200 say mov. Avg. comments please.
Reply
USSRandolph USSRandolph
24 days ago
@USSRandolph, moving avg of WTI Crude Oil is 43.65 as of 11 Nov, 2016
Reply
joeycsw19 PRO
24 days ago
Apri, appreciate for your kind sharing of your view point...I only placed 10% of my position, my dry powder is ready for another nice entry point :)
As I know, patience is the key to make good profits :)
Reply
joeycsw19 PRO joeycsw19
24 days ago
should be Arpi, sorry for my typo mistake :P
Reply
AshYo
24 days ago
Some one has forgotten about oil update... anxiously waiting.
Reply
Josef2016 PRO
24 days ago
snapshot
Reply
andrej123456
23 days ago
And did you check the last commitment of traders report ? Money managed shorts still low on the last report. I am long too but it was a big mistake at least until the week before the Austria producers meeting.
Reply
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