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Long

OIL - The level to watch

TVC:USOIL   WTI CRUDE OIL
3554 13 51
20 days ago

LONG UPDATE based on 200 SMA teset again post. Holding long positions.
It's just doesn't want to start.... On Friday we lost the 200 SMA .
That's why I told at the last Oil             idea : only 10-15% margin impact it's a risky trade.
We may or may not start the rally at the 200 SMA .

Taking out the 200 SMA is not a drama we can bounce even from here. We are in the 2nd daily cycle of this intermediate cycle and getting late so the bounce should come soon. The question is what kind of bounce do we get...
If we take out 42.75$ it will be a failed daily cycle and the bounce will be only a weak dead cat bounce for a few days and we will be heading down into the intermediate cycle low which will be a steep decline. I still don't know how S&P             and Dow will rally with a falling oil             even with Trump's infrastructure plans... We will see... I don't give too much chance for breaking down the previous DCL though. (1 RED)

I think the more probable scenario is that we are in a range and we going to start to bounce from here very soon and will be heading to the upper part of the range at 51.60$. After this weak 2nd daily cycle the chances are getting smaller and smaller for breaking 52$ this year. We might be ranging even for months... (2 GREEN)

So the 42.75 and 43$ level is still a good entry point. Even if we take out the last daily cycle we will have a bounce where we can unload our longs with profit. But I'm not going to add to this long position.
RSI and TSI             already showing divergencies... ALl we need is a MACD crossover.

WHo has already entered at the 200 SMA tag i don't suggest to add just hold the position.
For those who are on the sidelines It's a possible long entry with 10-15% margin impact
5 days ago
Comment: Closing 50% of the position at 46.90$.
epalazzo
20 days ago
IMHO it is going to play out between scenario 1 & 2. Either Friday was the DCL or it will come 1-2 days later. TSI is crossing over (bearish). http://invst.ly/2r0b4 Concerning ICs, it was week 14, there is plenty of time for the next ICL, at least another LT DC. There is a bearih divergence in TSI on the weekly TF. http://invst.ly/2r0b9 This decline is going to be a YCL as well. The bearish TSI crossover is just starting to develop on the monthly TF. http://invst.ly/2r0bk
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val_trader
20 days ago
Here all the play are in the end of the OPEC meeting 30 Nov.
I'm short, ready to close the short before API and EIA
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render
20 days ago
I agree.
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shawn.ctech
20 days ago
It will be scenario 1 with a shorter duration. Great work.
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Ronnee
19 days ago
Thanks APRi for update..
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FFMEO
19 days ago
Arpi, thanx for update.

I have something to ask you:
1) About 300 SMA.
Is it so important support/resistant line as 200 SMA? If oil closes today below 300 SMA ($42.45), will it be important sign for future decline (or maybe even for panic sales)? Or as we closed below 200 SMA with 2 red candles, it would be enough sign for future decline. Or maybe it isn’t important sign at all.

2) About NatGas.
NatGas turned up against 200 SMA as you predicted. Good job. Is it growth stable or not from your point of view? Is it right time to ADD NatGas longs now or we should wait some time?
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FFMEO FFMEO
19 days ago
@FFMEO, Arpi, now I see oil close above 300 SMA obviously. Excellent forecasting. My congratulation on this event.

However, what do you think about the importance comparison 200 and 300 SMAs for oil market? Is 300 SMA so important as 200 one?
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trade2win19
18 days ago
Arpi- When you said, "If we take out 42.75$ it will be a failed daily cycle " did you mean close below this or trade below this intraday?
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AshYo
18 days ago
Hi, which trend is in action now?
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AshYo
17 days ago
Hello which trend is this going at?
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chinoo
17 days ago
Oil will keep on tagging higher up to 29th of Nov. with a TP of appx. usd 49 .....
Trend is yr Friend !!
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USSRandolph
15 days ago
Any thoughts Arpi?
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boxx40
15 days ago
what is you current strategy for oil? I would love to read your update of this idea. thanks for your great work.
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