LONG UPDATE based on 200 teset again post. Holding long positions.
It's just doesn't want to start.... On Friday we lost the 200 .
That's why I told at the last Oil idea : only 10-15% margin impact it's a risky trade.
We may or may not start the rally at the 200 .
Taking out the 200 is not a drama we can bounce even from here. We are in the 2nd daily cycle of this intermediate cycle and getting late so the bounce should come soon. The question is what kind of bounce do we get...
If we take out 42.75$ it will be a failed daily cycle and the bounce will be only a weak dead cat bounce for a few days and we will be heading down into the intermediate cycle low which will be a steep decline. I still don't know how S&P and Dow will rally with a falling oil even with Trump's infrastructure plans... We will see... I don't give too much chance for breaking down the previous DCL though. (1 RED)
I think the more probable scenario is that we are in a range and we going to start to bounce from here very soon and will be heading to the upper part of the range at 51.60$. After this weak 2nd daily cycle the chances are getting smaller and smaller for breaking 52$ this year. We might be ranging even for months... (2 GREEN)
So the 42.75 and 43$ level is still a good entry point. Even if we take out the last daily cycle we will have a bounce where we can unload our longs with profit. But I'm not going to add to this long position.
and TSI already showing divergencies... ALl we need is a crossover.
WHo has already entered at the 200 tag i don't suggest to add just hold the position.
For those who are on the sidelines It's a possible long entry with 10-15% margin impact
I have something to ask you:
1) About 300 SMA.
Is it so important support/resistant line as 200 SMA? If oil closes today below 300 SMA ($42.45), will it be important sign for future decline (or maybe even for panic sales)? Or as we closed below 200 SMA with 2 red candles, it would be enough sign for future decline. Or maybe it isn’t important sign at all.
2) About NatGas.
NatGas turned up against 200 SMA as you predicted. Good job. Is it growth stable or not from your point of view? Is it right time to ADD NatGas longs now or we should wait some time?
However, what do you think about the importance comparison 200 and 300 SMAs for oil market? Is 300 SMA so important as 200 one?