The message is pretty clear. If WTI oil sees a day end closing above $50.18 it would not only negate the possibility of formation, but would also signal continuation of rally. In such a case, there is little in way for USD/CAD to drop to 1.2616.
However, one needs to respect the levels in WTI. If the day end closing is not above $50.18, we could head lower towards double neckline, especially since is overbought on hourly, 4-hour and daily time frame.