7th week going up, record streak in recent times
Hi guys, hope you are doing good in your trades.
Today I would like to share a couple of observations rather than a trading idea.
With the end of the trading session last Friday we have ended up having the seventh bull week in a row. This happened only a couple of times long ago. First time back in the 1990s and second one a bit more recently in early 2000s. The longest streak is 9 consecutive bull candles followed by 9 consecutive red candles.
Being said that, I think the next week could close in red in spite of the apparent worsening oil fundamentals, the so-called energy crunch.
The second observation is that oil prices have been for many years from early 1980s till 2006 below 50 bucks per barrel. It was on 2007 with the global economic crisis (triggered in the USA with the subprime stuff) that oil skyrocketed to 140 and plummeted afterwards back to a more decent levels where producers and consumers seemed to be happy. The good old days of the free market before the OPEC+ agreement to manipulate oil prices at their will.
What I am trying to bring back is some core fundamentals: Oil ranged for nearly two decades from 10 to 40 bucks, then in 2006 price went to the exact same level that we are sitting currently (79.6x), then corrected slightly below 50 and BOOM, the crisis triggered the record high of nearly 150 bucks. A year later, with unsustainable demand and very high costs, price dropped like a stone to 30 bucks! Market recovered afterwards trading from 65 to 110 bucks for 5 years or so and then plummeted again back to 30's.
History repeats itself and we are still facing the ever-before unseen consequences of a global pandemics and therefore no one could be sure of the next movement in oil in current circumstances.
If history repeats itself it looks like we gonna have some correction shortly and then we may head to 100 bucks and further above, repeating previous cicle.
The only different thing here is the presence of electric vehicles on the market and the climate change commitment so if oil keeps climbing non stop it is obvious that we are going to be forced to pay for it but that will trigger the next revolution in the car markets with high volume of electric vehicles.
OPEC+ should not abuse or profit from their illegal price manipulation because it could have serious consequences for them in the near future. I believe global leaders will keep pushing OPEC to open taps to bring prices lower to help the global economic recovery.
My two cents and a half.
Cheers.
Click like if this summary was worth and helpful for you and follow me so I can produce further unbiased articles.
Today I would like to share a couple of observations rather than a trading idea.
With the end of the trading session last Friday we have ended up having the seventh bull week in a row. This happened only a couple of times long ago. First time back in the 1990s and second one a bit more recently in early 2000s. The longest streak is 9 consecutive bull candles followed by 9 consecutive red candles.
Being said that, I think the next week could close in red in spite of the apparent worsening oil fundamentals, the so-called energy crunch.
The second observation is that oil prices have been for many years from early 1980s till 2006 below 50 bucks per barrel. It was on 2007 with the global economic crisis (triggered in the USA with the subprime stuff) that oil skyrocketed to 140 and plummeted afterwards back to a more decent levels where producers and consumers seemed to be happy. The good old days of the free market before the OPEC+ agreement to manipulate oil prices at their will.
What I am trying to bring back is some core fundamentals: Oil ranged for nearly two decades from 10 to 40 bucks, then in 2006 price went to the exact same level that we are sitting currently (79.6x), then corrected slightly below 50 and BOOM, the crisis triggered the record high of nearly 150 bucks. A year later, with unsustainable demand and very high costs, price dropped like a stone to 30 bucks! Market recovered afterwards trading from 65 to 110 bucks for 5 years or so and then plummeted again back to 30's.
History repeats itself and we are still facing the ever-before unseen consequences of a global pandemics and therefore no one could be sure of the next movement in oil in current circumstances.
If history repeats itself it looks like we gonna have some correction shortly and then we may head to 100 bucks and further above, repeating previous cicle.
The only different thing here is the presence of electric vehicles on the market and the climate change commitment so if oil keeps climbing non stop it is obvious that we are going to be forced to pay for it but that will trigger the next revolution in the car markets with high volume of electric vehicles.
OPEC+ should not abuse or profit from their illegal price manipulation because it could have serious consequences for them in the near future. I believe global leaders will keep pushing OPEC to open taps to bring prices lower to help the global economic recovery.
My two cents and a half.
Cheers.
Click like if this summary was worth and helpful for you and follow me so I can produce further unbiased articles.