simonsays452
Short

Re-shorted below consolidating support. Targeting 30.30

FX:USOIL   Crude Oil (WTI)
214 4 2
10 months ago
I closed out my prior short this afternoon when we hit the 31.35 target. I waited for directionality on the next leg. AH, we saw bearish and bullish trendline support failures and a breach of the lower range of consolidation support. I've reshorted and targeting 30.30 the 62% retracement with a stop a 31.30
10 months ago
Trade closed: target reached: Closed this short again today with my target reached at 29.70, this afternoon. The prior two API builds have served as short-covering signals. Typically, we've seen the futures trade down in the immediate after-hours of the build release, followed by short-covering on the European open and later throughout the following day. With support holding at 29.50 and two back-to-back >6% declines, I think the possibility for a technical short-covering rally is pretty high. I'll be sitting flat, waiting for directionality for the next move.
oudjedi.ahmed
10 months ago
Russia's energy minister and Venezuela's oil minister discussed the possibility of holding joint consultations between OPEC and non-OPEC countries in the near future, the Russian Energy Ministry said on Monday.
do you think they will have a bug impact for higher price for the oil ?
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simonsays452 PRO oudjedi.ahmed
10 months ago
The gulf states already said they weren't supporting a meeting. See my prior post. Venezuela can't and won't cut production. Neither can Russia.
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michael23 simonsays452
10 months ago
Precise analysis ! If there's no obvious news about the OPEC and not-OPEC countries work together to lift the oil price, it will still failing down after touch 30.30 ?
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simonsays452 PRO michael23
10 months ago
Here's my brief thoughts on OPEC production cut rumours:

http://www.basementmacro.com/uncategorized/respect-but-dont-buy-production-cut-rumors/

In short order, only two things matter:

1. Anyone who is actively lobbying for production cuts can't actually afford to implement them. These rumors are trial-balloons, which their progenitors hope can lure support based on short-term technical rallies. Unfortunately, every producing nation recognizes these freeriders' inability to follow-through with cuts, which makes legitimate compromise on a reduction in production levels a total non-starter. Try to find the last time realized OPEC production volumes fell below the cartel's target - and that was when producers unanimously agreed to keeping a lid on production. You need to respect the strength of these rumor-rallies, but until Saudi capitulates, none of them should be bought.

2. Saudi holds all the power. They're the only nation with sufficient political clout and the mandate to dictate if, when and to what degree cuts will happen. It's still too early for the Kingdom to abandon such a monumental shift in policy after only a little more than a year.
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