USOIL. If you have enough cash, shorting is still a good option
USOIL has been continuously testing a crucial resistance level at 34.50 figures during these days. Today the quote literally spent some hours over this quote and was declined only by an API inventories report.
Also, the Oil quote followed the SPX market which rallies over last two days. Finally, there was a strong support with the verbal interventions from Russia.
Nevertheless, even with a surface analysis we can see that:
1. The fundamentals haven´t changed, Oil depots around the world are full and the production is at record levels.
2. The production decrease is very low right now, it may take months for really important production cuts to come.
3. Despite the verbal interventions, Russia only shown that they are done with holding their production on January 2016 levels which was the highest since the records are taken. Was agreed with OPEC last week.
4. Markets will slow down and may retrace importantly before the ECB and FED statements on the monetary policies.
Technical analysis also shows selling signals: the quote is under both 200 and 86 MA, failing to consolidate over important resistance lines, specially, at 34.50 level. A Shooting Star figure on Friday and today´s Doji on Daily TF, in my opinion, show the close end to the ascending trend we had since mid February.
My idea is to Short once quote climbs to 34 levels. If you have enough cash to put a high SL, somewhere over 35 figures, as this week would be the best time for shorting.
Otherwise, you can wait until the lower channel limit is broken and sell out from there, targeting 26.03 figures low
Sell point 1: 34.50
SL 1: 35.50 ( above daily resistance)
Sell point 2: 33.05 (just below the channel limit)
SL1: 34.60 (above daily resistance)
TP1: 32.20 (to be reached this week)
TP2: 28.67 (to be reached by next week)
TP3: 26.03 (to be reached by next week)
Also, the Oil quote followed the SPX market which rallies over last two days. Finally, there was a strong support with the verbal interventions from Russia.
Nevertheless, even with a surface analysis we can see that:
1. The fundamentals haven´t changed, Oil depots around the world are full and the production is at record levels.
2. The production decrease is very low right now, it may take months for really important production cuts to come.
3. Despite the verbal interventions, Russia only shown that they are done with holding their production on January 2016 levels which was the highest since the records are taken. Was agreed with OPEC last week.
4. Markets will slow down and may retrace importantly before the ECB and FED statements on the monetary policies.
Technical analysis also shows selling signals: the quote is under both 200 and 86 MA, failing to consolidate over important resistance lines, specially, at 34.50 level. A Shooting Star figure on Friday and today´s Doji on Daily TF, in my opinion, show the close end to the ascending trend we had since mid February.
My idea is to Short once quote climbs to 34 levels. If you have enough cash to put a high SL, somewhere over 35 figures, as this week would be the best time for shorting.
Otherwise, you can wait until the lower channel limit is broken and sell out from there, targeting 26.03 figures low
Sell point 1: 34.50
SL 1: 35.50 ( above daily resistance)
Sell point 2: 33.05 (just below the channel limit)
SL1: 34.60 (above daily resistance)
TP1: 32.20 (to be reached this week)
TP2: 28.67 (to be reached by next week)
TP3: 26.03 (to be reached by next week)
Trade closed manually:
Trade opened at 34.50 and closed manually on 34.25 with a small profit.
Shorts haven´t really worked these days, we´ll have to wait for a better opportunity
Shorts haven´t really worked these days, we´ll have to wait for a better opportunity
Please, follow your strategy! Always!
If there is no strategy that has proven itself successful, please do not trade with real money!
If there is no strategy that has proven itself successful, please do not trade with real money!
