USOIL Update

The steep sell-off on Friday does look scary and technically bearish if you look at weekly candles (engulfing and northern star reversal). In my scenario, however, we are going through wave 2 of the final wave 5. But the steepness of the decline makes my confidence waver... The trend, however, is not broken yet and there was no divergence against the previous high in March.

Some would argue that the recent rise can be truncated wave 5 - I do not believe in truncated waves. Or at least ignore them for the purpose of future outlook otherwise possibilities are too broad.