Oil Analysis - Alarm bells!

FX:USOIL   CFDs on Crude Oil (WTI)
Sooooo, for the first time since March 19th, DMI has switched to bearish mode. It already got close on the 7th and 8th May but failed to break through. DMI+ is now just around 20 and slowping down and DMI- is sloping up and for the first time in a long time clearly above 20.

It will be interesting to see if DMI+ breaks down through 20. One thing to keep in mind is that we had a Euro             bank holiday that might distort indicators a bit, so I'll be looking for confirmation of the breakdown next week. We also have rollover going on and Friday was a pre-weekend short, there are a lot of reasons why waiting for confirmation of the breakdown early next weak is worth it.

This does NOT mean I automatically exit my long term longs from below 55. However, while I normally don't use stop losses other than breakeven settings at all, I am now looking at certain levels that would get me out my trades.

I'm specifically looking at 57.85 which would force me to close my longs above 50. If 56.0 breaks I'm out of all longs and will lock in profits.

Should be an interesting week to come. :)

EDIT: Ignore the "Entry" levels, those are just used as email alerts because I want to pay attention to price around those levels. They're not really meant as definite "entries".
Also, to be clear, I am NOT saying "go short". Until price breaks the levels mentioned, I am looking for bears to FAIL at those levels. In short, I'm a buyer at those levels IF I get a good buy signal on the lower timeframes.

That's why I said "alarm bells", doesn't mean I get up right away...I sometimes (read: often) hit the snooze button ;)
The H4 shows better detail:

Technically, this would be a great cheap price to get in for more longs, but the daily DMI change just can't be ignored. Having said that, if there's a nice momentum push through 60, I'm also not going to ignore that. I'll just keep the bearish warning in the back of my mind and will set trades to BE quickly.

I think there's a good chance it'll make another run at 61 even if it should break down after that.

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