The play here is buy for long. Crude will go to 80 very fast due to short covering that will occur if OPEC states it will not support an increase in prices.
Think about it, why should the kingdom add more oil to the supply because of US sanctions.
There are many plays here to watch such as the EUR/USD .
Oil up-Dollar Down-Euro up
Take your pick. Either way, there is a Delta coming to the sector.
Leveraged players can use option calls at 12-13 range with Sept expiry.
Because of demand outstripping supply and even if the OPEC nations increased production, there is still going to be a shortfall. The US has declared cold turkey for November or else get kicked out SWIFT to all players. There are ways around this but for the most part, Iranian crude is DOA. Because many contracts are 6 months out and I am sure force majuere is being declared, buyers will have to find real supply now. In my experience, this does not happen fast. 80 crude is coming fast and it is entirely possible 85 at the end of the year.
I will share that my works in fuels and outcomes are regarded by some as stellar. As an example, at the crash of 2014-15, I advised my clients to go long for 2017 and 2018. Many have gained over 1000% on my assessments. No one can predict the future but oil is predictable because it is needed and shortfalls cause radical movements. The shorts got hammered several days ago and they are still covering.
All technical indicators I use are screaming higher and we are at a resistance stage now, but I expect that to fail and a new high to be established with upward momentum.
You are correct. This rally is a close the cup and erases earlier losses. Use the Fib and any pullback greater than .382 as an entry from the recent low to the recent high.
At present this is 69.64