Kumowizard

Still bearish. Possible Reversal point is ard 40,50

FX:USOIL   Crude Oil (WTI)
259 0 4
Last dip buying attempt failed, I got stopped out of my (now we see too early) counter long with a minor loss. Minor loss was due to proper risk management and small position size (0,5 unit only). Did not harm portfolio too much.

Of course everybody is still waiting for the bottom and the big pull back reversal to catch it!
While obviously it is impossible to call a bottom, as no one knows where it will be, predicting it is nothing else but gambling or let's use my Heikin Ashi mentors' words: "hopium" trade. However catching a higher probability reversal is possible, but for that you mus accept that you have to let the first few % go away. Simply to get the higher probability setup. So how is it looking now on multi time frame?

Weekly:
- Absolutely bearish Ichimoku
- Absolutely bearish Heikin Ashi, maybe some "hopium" in haDelta/SMA3 which has been flattening out. Wat does this mean? This only means that selling pressure has been kind of equally weighted during last few weeks, momentum neither acelerated further nor chilled down. Smooth selling so far.

Daily:
- No comments, great bear market.
- No real and obvious Heikin Ashi signal so far that the selling may ease or price action is about to reverse. Wait and see...
- For possible reversal Price should print a valid Heikin Ashi reversal candle pattern, and minimum close above Tenkan Sen + hit SAR             . Level to watch right now is 40,50.

4H:
- bearish . pull back from recent 38 low is on its way. May retest KijunSen+, but 40,50-41,00 is the real support/resistance to watch.
- For a vald counter trend signals we'd need no lower low, and a break above longer 4H Ichimoku averages (Kijun Sen and Kumo) and 100 WMA. Area to watch is 40,50-41.

I would not open any new shorts here. But as you see buying against the major downtrend is also very dangerous. Watch, wait and we'll see when a better and higher probability signal comes in.
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