Expecting oil to go up ??? Think twice
Hi Folks:
Here's my updated view on US tricky oil after yesterday's successful short call. Target was achieved and exceeded by 50 pips :)
Recent OPEC+ decision to keep the same output of 400kbpd above the quotas send the prices crashing and then recovered very fast. Regardless of what the oil analysts from big firms and banks are saying (oil at 125-150$) the real truth is far from these prices at the moment.
Why they say such things? Well, who do you think the US Shale borrow the money from? Exactly, that's why they need to brain wash everyone with ideas of high oil prices due to the lack of investment, etc.
They may be partially right but not at the pace they want. You can not expect to send prices above 100 bucks after suffering a global pandemics with bunches of economies still suffering a lot and new lockdowns in place. Many world leaders were angry at OPEC+ countries for not cooperating in this recovery and sending inflation to unseen levels in almost 30 years.
OPEC+ said that they see surplus on Q1-2022 and after the coordinated release of SPR from different countries, the market will be having even more surplus. Once the SPR hits the road we will start seeing higher and higher oil in the storages and sending slowly prices down.
This volatility will be ending soon, as soon as the omicron will be a bit less feared and known by scientists. Until then, oil has limited potential to go up in my humble opinion.
Surprises come in both ways, bulls and bears, and if you thought that price already corrected too much, you should consider some extra surprises from the big fund managers.
Today we crossed the ascending channel detected but managed to close above it but we are still trading below main EMA's, so we are in bear's hands at the moment.
I am expecting at least to hit the previous low 61.76 that was almost hit today, but if it doesn't bounce sharply from there, we may have some extra surprises at psychological 60.
I am thinking that some sort of flash crash to mid 59 could happen and at those prices will attract lots of buyers.
At the moment of writing oil was correction -'0.2% already so it looks like yesterday's end of sessions recovery could be once again wiped out today.
Cheers
-------------------------------------------------
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Here's my updated view on US tricky oil after yesterday's successful short call. Target was achieved and exceeded by 50 pips :)
Recent OPEC+ decision to keep the same output of 400kbpd above the quotas send the prices crashing and then recovered very fast. Regardless of what the oil analysts from big firms and banks are saying (oil at 125-150$) the real truth is far from these prices at the moment.
Why they say such things? Well, who do you think the US Shale borrow the money from? Exactly, that's why they need to brain wash everyone with ideas of high oil prices due to the lack of investment, etc.
They may be partially right but not at the pace they want. You can not expect to send prices above 100 bucks after suffering a global pandemics with bunches of economies still suffering a lot and new lockdowns in place. Many world leaders were angry at OPEC+ countries for not cooperating in this recovery and sending inflation to unseen levels in almost 30 years.
OPEC+ said that they see surplus on Q1-2022 and after the coordinated release of SPR from different countries, the market will be having even more surplus. Once the SPR hits the road we will start seeing higher and higher oil in the storages and sending slowly prices down.
This volatility will be ending soon, as soon as the omicron will be a bit less feared and known by scientists. Until then, oil has limited potential to go up in my humble opinion.
Surprises come in both ways, bulls and bears, and if you thought that price already corrected too much, you should consider some extra surprises from the big fund managers.
Today we crossed the ascending channel detected but managed to close above it but we are still trading below main EMA's, so we are in bear's hands at the moment.
I am expecting at least to hit the previous low 61.76 that was almost hit today, but if it doesn't bounce sharply from there, we may have some extra surprises at psychological 60.
I am thinking that some sort of flash crash to mid 59 could happen and at those prices will attract lots of buyers.
At the moment of writing oil was correction -'0.2% already so it looks like yesterday's end of sessions recovery could be once again wiped out today.
Cheers
-------------------------------------------------
Remember, if you liked this idea don't forget to click LIKE and FOLLOW. That will encourage me to continue charting for you.
Comment:
I am expecting another red week in OIL as the Covid situation in Europe is worsening pretty fast and some countries are back to teleworking and further restrictions such Belgium and Ireland. Target remains 59 for the next week or two.