MichaelHua

Fund. will channel/squeeze until OPEC. Watching inv/rig count

FX:USOIL   Crude Oil (WTI)
70 0 3
TA memo to myself charting possible contingencies.

USOIL             to follow fundamentals/EIA/API/Rigs and channel/squeeze until September OPEC meeting.

Currently at 46.60ish. EIA             report was bearish but less bearish than the API report. I am still tempted for potential break-out buy point is at 46.00ish? But another more realistic possibility for me--if last week was just a sign of major short squeeze and we are now at a neutral zone, then we may go back towards the another major short after a failed OPEC meeting. But, because of looming OPEC meeting and rumors of a supposed cap, we may have a little tug of war between the bulls and bears resulting in a channel.

Fundamentals point to bearish: As of today, EIA             , API , Baker Hughes             are bearish .

Technicals: The pullback is week compared to the jump; but again, the last few week jumps have been supposedly a major short covering and this pull back is likely a neutral pullback.

Conclusion: sideways movement again until the OPEC meeting as news goes back and forth.

Prediction: The week of the OPEC meeting, possible sell-off because OPEC will probably not fall through again.
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