Pathetic first daily cycle. I don't find any reason why was it so complicated... I would have liked to see a rally above 52 as we came out of the half cycle low on the 1st of Sept, but instead of that we broke the HCL level...
So this daily cycle is quite tricky : not easy to ride...
The day before yesterday we printed the low in oil. Yesterday we had a swing low and by the close we gave back all the gains. Today we closed again above yesterday's and the day before yesterday's high.
So it's seems to be good. But....
If this first daily cycle is a short cycle we might had the DCL on 09.16 (2 days ago) . In that case we are heading higher as we are now in the second daily cycle. (Green scanario)
If we are still not ready with the first daily cycle - it can easily be the case as oil cycles are longer than this - we are going to break down the 09.16 low and will be heading to the 200 SMA and print the final DCL around 41$. (Blue scenario)
Notice the bullish divergence on RSI.
So my suggestion:
I still think oil is long. If we continue the rally tomorrow one could enter with a starting position. Not all in but with a good long position. If we rally you can add to the position at the last days of September or the first days of October as around there it will be obvious that the DCL is behind us.
If we start the position and oil tricks us out as breaking the day before yesterday's low : it wants to tag the 200 SMA.
I'm still holding my longs and not going to stop out the position if we break below 42.5$ . I will add to the position at the 200 SMA.
With these trading tricks we will avoid to get left behind at the empty oil rig.
So this daily cycle is quite tricky : not easy to ride...
The day before yesterday we printed the low in oil. Yesterday we had a swing low and by the close we gave back all the gains. Today we closed again above yesterday's and the day before yesterday's high.
So it's seems to be good. But....
If this first daily cycle is a short cycle we might had the DCL on 09.16 (2 days ago) . In that case we are heading higher as we are now in the second daily cycle. (Green scanario)
If we are still not ready with the first daily cycle - it can easily be the case as oil cycles are longer than this - we are going to break down the 09.16 low and will be heading to the 200 SMA and print the final DCL around 41$. (Blue scenario)
Notice the bullish divergence on RSI.
So my suggestion:
I still think oil is long. If we continue the rally tomorrow one could enter with a starting position. Not all in but with a good long position. If we rally you can add to the position at the last days of September or the first days of October as around there it will be obvious that the DCL is behind us.
If we start the position and oil tricks us out as breaking the day before yesterday's low : it wants to tag the 200 SMA.
I'm still holding my longs and not going to stop out the position if we break below 42.5$ . I will add to the position at the 200 SMA.
With these trading tricks we will avoid to get left behind at the empty oil rig.
Next mission is to break the blue trendline.