SPYderCrusher

Crude Oil - Quarterly Decline 3rd Worst in 24 Yrs, Time For Low?

FX:USOIL   Crude Oil (WTI)
This chart shows USOIL             , West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil             futures , on a monthly timeframe .

Plotted on the chart are our SCMR             Dynamic Levels™, which dynamically plot support / resistance zones and are accurate at finding targets. This indicator is available in the TradingView App store under Analysis Suite - SCMR             Trends.

The BIG QUESTION: Is crude bottoming here?

Let's go over what this chart illustrates, and you tell me.

-----> The lower pane shows the rolling quarterly returns for Crude, and I colored the plot red whenever the quarterly decline is less than -25%. This current decline, at -39% this quarter, is the third worst in the past 25 years, only eclipsed by 2008 and 1991.

-----> Overlaid on the chart itself are red, vertical markers indicating where in a prior quarter the return was less than our -25% threshold, but then in next (current) quarter crossed up through -25%, in other words, *the mean reversion back up has started*. We are still waiting for this event to take place.

-----> Dynamic Level Support at $58. Through this level by $3, but may prove to stabilize near it.

\\\Conclusion:/// Based on the above, you can surmise that the low is *extremely likely within 1-2 months*. Some may balk at an analysis wherein the time to fruition is +/- 1-2 months, but that is the nature of a 24 yr chart :) .

Additional momentum can certainly take us lower than the current price. The 2008 decline took FIVE months before mean reversion started, and we are only on month two currently (which is how I've derived the 1-2 month timeframe for mean reversion to begin -- assuming this is as bad as 2008 for the oil             markets). Also note it was the most extreme, and other declines began mean reversion after a scant one month after a 25% quarterly decline.

This is a guide not a call, if you catch the subtlety there. After we start the mean-reversion (the red vertical bars overlaid on price) is where I would come out and say a low is in place -- this is still front running that event.

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Crude vs. Average Prices at the Pump in USA

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SPYderCrusher PRO SPYderCrusher
Currently Oil is bouncing off a low set last night, but why this low is perhaps more significant than the many preceding it, is that this is the largest one.

Using the same rolling percentage oscillator as in the main chart, this one shows the current advance is the biggest yet.

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SPYderCrusher PRO SPYderCrusher
Meant to add regular candle chart, not HA bars

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*UN*confirmed Reversal Bar on the Daily now.... first one in a bit....

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SPYderCrusher PRO SPYderCrusher
to update, the *UN*confirmed reversal cited above was just that -- unconfirmed. We can see no confirmation took place and oil subsequently continued down.

Now, we have two green bars signifying an uptrend has started. One of the tough things is you dont know how long a trend will last (ie, the most recent downtrend lasting longer than bottom callers thought possible) but give that it has been SIX WEEKS from my "oil bottoms in 1-2 months call (dated in 12/16/14) I think we can say that that this is a "tradable" long entry in accordance with that call. At least we have good lows to stop out against.

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First two arrows are the first targets up.
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SPYderCrusher PRO SPYderCrusher
hit target 1, now we have a P "pivot" bar

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bwy PRO SPYderCrusher
From your trends indicator it's looking like oil is still on the rise, but I'm leaning more towards this likely being the first real daily correction on this trend. Need to be cautious buying into such a serious downtrend I think.
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I'll be selling on a break below that pivot bar
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yeah that's where Id be out of the trade / or looking to short as well. Good stuff @bwy
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Updated Gas Prices at the Pump Chart
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SPYderCrusher PRO SPYderCrusher
update:

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The Latest - 2-25-15

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SPYderCrusher PRO SPYderCrusher
Here is the update of Daily Trends:

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Officially triggering monthly mean reversion signal (red spike on price chart under this month's low):

Note that prior spikes marked 6-12 month lows. We'll see if this time sticks.

What is the red spike? It simply shows when the quarterly return was worse than 25%, and then crossed back through the threshold.

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Just updating: so far not a lot of traction yet..... Monthly call isn't wholly invalidated but it looks I like may have got this assessment wrong.

Kind of reminds me why I am a trend follower at heart. Just much simpler to trade in the dominant direction.

Looking at the merits of the original idea, the thesis was based on past *large* declines, oil should bottom in 1-2 months from the original post. So far, that's timeline has been working, but not a lot of upside recovery. to accompany it. Time will tell.

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SPYderCrusher PRO SPYderCrusher
looks like (fingers crossed) there may be time to shine:

1.) https://twitter.com/SPYder_Crusher/status/585917089078120448
2.) https://twitter.com/SPYder_Crusher/status/585915732220710912
3.) https://twitter.com/SPYder_Crusher/status/585551333702393856
4.) https://twitter.com/SPYder_Crusher/status/585550514814902272
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SunnyBTC PRO SPYderCrusher
Hey Danny. Just started up the comments follows under notifications, so i'll be harrassing you quite often now :)
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SunnyBTC PRO SPYderCrusher
Check out this 52W dynamic resistance thats formed around 54.30. Hope it can break this for me to be a buyer...
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Beautiful Sunny! ty for that chart
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SunnyBTC PRO SPYderCrusher
Thanks mate. Broken 54.30 today :) Looks like it may have supports building below also. I'm currently watching this mini rising wedge within larger rising wedge for weakness:
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