1 month ago today, OPEC unofficially decided that they would cut production by 32.5-33m br/day. That announcement sent oil
into gains frenzy skyrocketing it to almost $52/barrel. That unofficial statement was not enough to make oil
break the resistance and reach the expected price of $60/barrel. Now during the OPEC and non-OPEC members meeting in Vienna in Friday and Saturday things took a very different turn than hoped. Starting with the OPEC meeting on Friday, the members failed to come to a conclusion and cut production with the biggest opposer being Iraq. Saturday, leaks hint towards a non-conclusive meeting as well. This leads me to expect further movement south for oil
over the next weekend. TP for me is $47. Still, I think no production cut could mean that oil
tumbles more and thus I will be trading oil
over the next month until their next meeting ONLY if it manages to break below the $47-46.8 area with relatively high volume
and if indicators favour a short play.