USOIL: Buy setups during higher-timeframe correction

OIL PRICE WEEKLY OUTLOOK
(Week of Oct 20-24, 2025)
Key Drivers & Risks

Updates in Supply, Demand, and Geopolitical News

• EIA (week ending Oct 10): Crude inventories +3.5 million bbl; distillates −4.5 million bbl.
  
• IEA OMR (Oct 2025): Upgraded global supply forecast: +3.0 mb/d in 2025 and +2.4 mb/d in 2026, while demand grows only ~0.7 mb/d per year ⇒ signaling a large surplus risk and downward pressure on prices.
  
• OPEC (Oct 2025): Maintains demand growth outlook of +1.3 mb/d for 2025, but acknowledges a smaller deficit in 2026 as OPEC+ output rises; September production increased by ~630 kb/d.
  
• Maritime risk in the Red Sea / Gulf of Aden: Over the weekend, a gas carrier reportedly caught fire following a possible attack off Yemen’s coast, leading to higher shipping risk premiums, though no major disruption to trade flows has been reported yet.
  

Watchlist for the Week Ahead

• EIA Weekly Report (Oct 22): Focus on crude and distillate inventories, and any signs of policy or flow adjustments.
  
• Maritime security updates in the Red Sea / Gulf of Aden / Strait of Hormuz — monitor frequency and severity of incidents.
  
• China data: imports, refinery runs, and inventories — potential signals of stockpiling at lower price levels.
  
• Any notable demand-side surprises (if any emerge).
  

Overall View

• Oil prices are expected to gradually decline within a relatively narrow range of $70–$50 through mid-2026.
  
• Short-term rebounds may occur due to low price levels and heightened transport risk headlines.
  
• China’s potential restocking activity could provide limited demand-side support.
  

* Trend: assessed using at least three trend indicators, with market structure as the primary guide.
** Weak or Reversal Signals: Assessed based on one of our criteria for trend reversal signals.
*** Support/Resistance: Selected from multiple factors – static (Swing High, Swing Low, etc.), dynamic (EMA, MA, etc.), psychological (Fibonacci, RSI, etc.) – and determined based on the trader’s discretion.
**** Our advice takes into account all factors, including both fundamental and technical analysis. It is not intended as a profit target. We hope it can serve as a reference to help you trade more effectively. This advice is for informational purposes only and we assume no responsibility for any trading results based on it.

George Vann @ ZuperView