Given FOMC is behind us now and the market is most likely following another leg down I'm expecting a top line rejection off of the large channel on the daily.
Rejected off the 200d MA of $218.11. Expect continuing rejection if we get a dead cat recovery at this point, but ultimately I see this impulse retracing back down. Notice the W pattern several bars before with a clear rejection off the top resistance with the large wick a few days prior.
MACD is making lower highs, RSI is coming back down and about to cross the signal to the bearish side. Stochastic is losing steam as well starting to fall from overbought territory. VI+ looks like its done making an engulfing void to the upside, which indicates that a reversal pattern with VI- is probably around the corner. TTM squeeze looks like its starting to apex as well.
Looking at the fib retrace from the previous low to high, and also following an extension downwards from previous high impulse to recent low and recent high we are looking at support levels of 0.236 at ~ $202.81 and 201.26 which is more or less where current price action is. Therefore expect the next couple of fib supports/resistances to be hit on both the retracement as well as the downward extension.
Retracement supports are as follow --
0.382 $194.42
0.5 $193.06
0.618 $188.70
Fib Extension resistances are as follow --
0.382 $194.91
0.5 $189.79
0.618 $184.66
Looking at the volume profile we see a good shelf of support up to the 0.5 fib extension.
Look for downward movement over the next 6 daily bars (10 days). Price action must clear the support shelf at $200 to continue downwards, otherwise expect sideways action between $200-203.
PT1: -6 pts -2.99% to the 0.382 extension ~ $194.91
PT2: -11.11 pts -5.33% to the 0.5 extension ~ $190 -- I think this is where $V will find support and probably start heading sideways.
Max PT: -16.11 pts -8.03% to the 0.618 fib extension ~ $185 -- Long shot, will have to continuously monitor to see how we move along with the macro and how the volume profile shapes up over the next few days.
Stop loss: ~$203.50 +1.53% from current action -- This would be the last stop on the volume profile upwards where the next would be a gap towards the upside.
Rejected off the 200d MA of $218.11. Expect continuing rejection if we get a dead cat recovery at this point, but ultimately I see this impulse retracing back down. Notice the W pattern several bars before with a clear rejection off the top resistance with the large wick a few days prior.
MACD is making lower highs, RSI is coming back down and about to cross the signal to the bearish side. Stochastic is losing steam as well starting to fall from overbought territory. VI+ looks like its done making an engulfing void to the upside, which indicates that a reversal pattern with VI- is probably around the corner. TTM squeeze looks like its starting to apex as well.
Looking at the fib retrace from the previous low to high, and also following an extension downwards from previous high impulse to recent low and recent high we are looking at support levels of 0.236 at ~ $202.81 and 201.26 which is more or less where current price action is. Therefore expect the next couple of fib supports/resistances to be hit on both the retracement as well as the downward extension.
Retracement supports are as follow --
0.382 $194.42
0.5 $193.06
0.618 $188.70
Fib Extension resistances are as follow --
0.382 $194.91
0.5 $189.79
0.618 $184.66
Looking at the volume profile we see a good shelf of support up to the 0.5 fib extension.
Look for downward movement over the next 6 daily bars (10 days). Price action must clear the support shelf at $200 to continue downwards, otherwise expect sideways action between $200-203.
PT1: -6 pts -2.99% to the 0.382 extension ~ $194.91
PT2: -11.11 pts -5.33% to the 0.5 extension ~ $190 -- I think this is where $V will find support and probably start heading sideways.
Max PT: -16.11 pts -8.03% to the 0.618 fib extension ~ $185 -- Long shot, will have to continuously monitor to see how we move along with the macro and how the volume profile shapes up over the next few days.
Stop loss: ~$203.50 +1.53% from current action -- This would be the last stop on the volume profile upwards where the next would be a gap towards the upside.
Trade closed: stop reached:
Stop reached the other day. PT1 was hit and hopefully took profits.
At this point the stock looks like its found support at the 0.382 line and it looks like it is going sideways. Given election fears are easing, there is a potential of a small bull run, so I think its wise to take any profits at this point and close this out -- or take losses incase of sideways/up action for any shorts.
For bulls, it might make sense to stay in, but again the charts are indicating at least sideways action. For those staying in, look at the fib support levels and see if the channel resistance holds for when the stock continues up. If it rejects then the fib lines will hold on the next bounce down from there.
At this point the stock looks like its found support at the 0.382 line and it looks like it is going sideways. Given election fears are easing, there is a potential of a small bull run, so I think its wise to take any profits at this point and close this out -- or take losses incase of sideways/up action for any shorts.
For bulls, it might make sense to stay in, but again the charts are indicating at least sideways action. For those staying in, look at the fib support levels and see if the channel resistance holds for when the stock continues up. If it rejects then the fib lines will hold on the next bounce down from there.
On the 1h+ext chart, we need to clear a couple more volume supports near $193 before we fall through the next gap of the volume profile to breach the 0.5 extension and head down towards the next chunk of volume.
The 1h+ext POC is $185 and the volume resistance starts building at $188.
At this point we're looking at maybe a -5% to the POC, but keep in mind we could easily come back up through the gap we just fell through and regain back up to the 0.236 resistance before figuring out what to do.
Check your RVR and take profits as needed and derisk, especially if we look like the $193 support is going to kick us back upwards.