Uphill Battle for Visa

Visa has a lot of hurdles ahead if it wants to go higher.

  • A bear trend line has formed from the all-time high and the lower high on October 17th.
    Today's high was rejected on the trend line .

  • Today's price also failed to break the upper heavy volume profile around $140.50.

  • Today's price was rejected at the 4hr 200 EMA .

  • The 50 EMA has crossed the 100 EMA .

Continued failure of the bear trend line shows that bears are in full control and there isn't a reason to be a buyer of Visa.

If this month's momentum continues downward and price continues to be suppressed under the recent bear trend line , the 2 year upward channel is going to be under attack. A test of the major upward channel will also line up with the 4hr 400 EMA and be near the low on the October 11th. If those areas don't hold the price, Visa is in big trouble since they would then become major resistance.

A failure of the major channel, recent low and 4hr 400 EMA could take Visa down to the low $120 range.

The $120 serves as a target for a few reasons:

  • It's a heavy volume profile area in the heart of the major flag from Jan-April 2018

  • The trend line from the top of the major flag from Jan-April 2018 would be retested.

  • A significant gap would be filled from late April.

All of this is pending the recent bear trend line doesn't get broken.
Price action up above the bear trend line means this play is no longer a short.
It would then become neutral until price tells us more information, first being if the 4hr 50, 100 and 200 EMA can be broken and held.
Then we wait to see if a new all-time high can be broken, tested and held.
A test of the all-time high is only 8% away. Not worth the risk at this point considering the downside potential.
Comment: Price is currently testing the 4hr 200 EMA and the bear trend line. Telling moments.
Trade closed: target reached
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