BINANCE:VETUSD   VeChain / US Dollar (calculated by TradingView)
This is a longterm analysis of a possible 3 year outlook for VET/USD using the 1 week chart.

Here is a closer look at this VET/USD 1 week Chart.


On this 1 week timeframe, VET has been back above its Least Squares Moving Average ( LSMA ) since the week of 7th March 2022. Note that a weekly close ABOVE the LSMA is considered a BUY SIGNAL for this indicator.

VET is also back ABOVE its Bollinger Bands Middle Band Basis 20 Period SMA for this 1 week timeframe. Note that the Upper and Lower Bands are still contracting indicating VET still has plenty of room to move up or down before expansion kicks in and it becomes over extended on this 1 week timeframe.

VET is Back ABOVE its 100MA (Red Line) but still BELOW its 50MA (Blue Line) on this 1 week timeframe.

VET is in a massive Rising Wedge Pattern, the APEX of which is around the week of 5th - 12th May 2025 and is at around $8.8 as indicated by the Rising Converging Blue Lines.

VET is also in a Triangle Pattern as indicated by the Converging Black Dotted Lines.

Looking at the Trend-Based Fib Extension we can see that at the moment, VET has found some resistance from its 0.236 level at $0.0876. Note that the Fib Levels are based on Log Scale.

VET closed the last weekly Volume Bar ABOVE its Volume 20 Period MA, in the Green and this weekly Volume Bar will also close ABOVE its Volume MA.

VET is above its Volume Profile Fixed Range Point of Control (VPFR POC) for the Fixed Range of 3 Weekly Candle that i have selected.


Looking at the Moving Average Convergence Divergence ( MACD ), we can see that we have a BUY SIGNAL on this indicator for this 1 week timeframe because the MACD Line (Blue Line) has crosses back ABOVE the SIGNAL Line (Orange Line) creating a new Green Histogram. This is the first new BUY SIGNAL since the week of 25th Oct 2021 and it’s the first new Green Histogram since 22nd Nov 2022. Note that the MACD Line (Blue Line) is still in the Negative Zone under the 0.0 Base Line, so the next key thing will be when the MACD Line (Blue Line) crosses back over and ABOVE the 0.0 Base Line into the Positive Zone.


Looking at the Relative Strength Index ( RSI ) for this 1 week timeframe, we can see that Momentum is upwards at the moment and the RSI (Purple Line) is back above its 9 Period EMA (Orange Line) and indicating upwards momentum strength. Note that the RSI (Purple Line) has plenty of room to move up before entering the Overbought Zone which is above 70 on this 1 week timeframe.


Looking at the Average Directional Index ( ADX DI) we can see that the Trend Strength is still weak with the ADX (Orange Line) at 14.51 under the 20 Threshold and under its 9 Period EMA (Black Line). Positive Momentum has increased with the +DI (Green Line) rising to 25.101 and ABOVE its -DI (Red Line) which is at 19.21. A very good sign on this 1 week timeframe will be if we continue to see the +DI (Green Line) expand further away from the -DI (Red Line) as well as the ADX (Orange Line) crossing back ABOVE its 9 Period EMA (Black Line) and AOVE 20 Threshold.


With such a large rise on the Daily, we shouldn't be surprised if VET re-traces back to its LSMA or even its Bollinger Bands Middle Band Basis 20 Period SMA on the 1 day timeframe. Here is a look at the 1 day chart so you can see the Expansion of the Bollinger Bands . Note that VET found support today from its LSMA Level on the 1 day chart.


Obviously a lot can happen and change in 3 years with the Crypto Market, VET can easily break ABOVE or BELOW and CLOSE a Weekly Candle ABOVE or BELOW the Rising Wedge Pattern's Trend Lines to invalidate it way before it ever gets to the APEX.

The first crucial step for VET will be CLOSE a weekly Candle ABOVE its 0.236 Trend-Based Fib Level at 0.0876 and if needs be, to successfully re-test that level as strong support.

Key things to look out for the potential start off on this VET/USD longterm 1 week timeframe in no particular order:

For the Positive Side:
1: A successful close ABOVE the 0.236 Trend-Based Fib Extension level.
2: Expansion of the Upper and Lower Bollinger Bands while the Price is above the Upper Band.
3: A successful Weekly Close ABOVE the 50MA,
4: The BB Middle Band 20 Period SMA crossing back ABOVE the 50MA
5: The 100MA crossing back ABOVE the 50MA
6: The MACD Line (Blue Line) crossing back above the 0.0 Base Line into the Positive Zone
7: The ADX Line (Orange Line) crossing back ABOVE the 20 Threshold and its 9 Period EMA (Black Line).
8: A Weekly close ABOVE the Ascending Upper Blue Trend-line of the Rising Wedge Pattern.
9: A Weekly Close ABOVE the Upper Triangle Pattern Trend-line.
10: A successful close ABOVE the 50MA.

For the Negative Side:
1: A successful close BELOW the 0.236 Trend-Based Fib Extension level.
2: A drop back UNDER the BB Middle Band Basis 20 Period SMA .
3: A Weekly Close back UNDER the 100MA,
4: A weekly Close back UNDER the LMA.
5: The 100MA crossing back ABOVE the 50MA
6: The MACD Line (Blue Line) crossing back UNDER the SIGNAL LINE (Orange Line)
7: The +DI (Green Line) crossing back UNDER the -DI (Red Line).
8: A Weekly close BELOW the Ascending Bottom Blue Trend-line of the Rising Wedge Pattern.
9: A Weekly Close BELOW the Lower Triangle Pattern Trend-line.
10: The RSI (Purple Line) crossing back UNDER its 9 Period EMA (Orange Line)


I’m sure I’ve missed a few things but that’s probably enough of me rambling on.

I hope this post is helpful with your Trading, Hodl-ing or DCA-ing.

Comment: Note that the 3 year Ascending Wedge Pattern is still valid.

At the moment VET is below its 100MA on this 1 week timeframe. A weekly close below the 100MA and successful re-test as resistance might lead to a drop back down to the Lower Ascending Trend-line of the Ascending Wedge Patten around $0.048.

VET is also below its Bollinger Bands Middle Band Basis 20 Period SMA. Note that the Upper and Lower Bands are still contracting.

Note that at the moment VET is below both its VPFR POC and its VPVR POC.

Note that the Resistance Level located at the 0.236 Trend Based-Fib Extension Level at (0.087) is still a very crucial resistance level and VET needs to eventually close a weekly candle above this level.


If you are long, look for a successful weekly close above the Bollinger Bands Middle Band Basis 20 Period SMA and the 100MA with any successful re-test as support on this weekly timeframe. Longterm, the 0.236 Trend Based-Fib Extension Level is a crucial resistance that needs to be conquered.

I hope this is helpful.


Comment:

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