Short SPY, Long VIX - Market conditions not ready for a new ATH
Near Term:
- VIX futures trading close to 52wk low.
- AMC short/gamma squeeze 4 days in a row.
- DXY flashing reversal signs.
- BTC and ETH has room to drop further (with accompanying capital flight from equity markets).
- Lizard people expected to announce some change in current policy at June FOMC meeting.
Similar setups as the friday before Memorial Day weekend. Short term swing that may be a precursor for a larger market correction.
Bigger Picture:
- Sensitivity to volatility leading to market shocks such as the archegos liquidation, with more to likely come.
- QE is not forever and already winding down, Fed reverse repo facility hit record levels yesterday ($350B~ liquidity removed)
- May not see stock buyback levels expected by investors depending on political developments.
- Domestic Real Estate, Materials, Energy, meaningless NFTs, and even the used auto market are all in bubbles when comparing auction prices paid by dealers from just a few months ago.
- A massive infrastructure bill will not be enough to ignore the above, even if we assume 100% effective use of funds.
- Credit markets facing potential liquidity crisis.
- MBS once again tranched with crap, this time more so on the commercial side. US household debt service/income also likely at its low.
- Corporate income tax increases also still looming where companies will choose to retain more of their earnings outside the US. Besides the obvious economic negatives, this leads to the Chinese RMB appreciating and thus the CCP instructing their firms to ramp up foreign investment in order to alleviate currency pressures to remain trade competitive.
- VIX futures trading close to 52wk low.
- AMC short/gamma squeeze 4 days in a row.
- DXY flashing reversal signs.
- BTC and ETH has room to drop further (with accompanying capital flight from equity markets).
- Lizard people expected to announce some change in current policy at June FOMC meeting.
Similar setups as the friday before Memorial Day weekend. Short term swing that may be a precursor for a larger market correction.
Bigger Picture:
- Sensitivity to volatility leading to market shocks such as the archegos liquidation, with more to likely come.
- QE is not forever and already winding down, Fed reverse repo facility hit record levels yesterday ($350B~ liquidity removed)
- May not see stock buyback levels expected by investors depending on political developments.
- Domestic Real Estate, Materials, Energy, meaningless NFTs, and even the used auto market are all in bubbles when comparing auction prices paid by dealers from just a few months ago.
- A massive infrastructure bill will not be enough to ignore the above, even if we assume 100% effective use of funds.
- Credit markets facing potential liquidity crisis.
- MBS once again tranched with crap, this time more so on the commercial side. US household debt service/income also likely at its low.
- Corporate income tax increases also still looming where companies will choose to retain more of their earnings outside the US. Besides the obvious economic negatives, this leads to the Chinese RMB appreciating and thus the CCP instructing their firms to ramp up foreign investment in order to alleviate currency pressures to remain trade competitive.