Could you look at the entire range on the month? I'd only suggest that a "monthly close" VIX isn't necessarily capturing the VIX in as meaningful a way as the intra-month highs and lows. The monthly close is important, but it is only 1 price out of a total of 22 days x 4 data points (O,H,L,C) or 88 in total. (Open, High, Low, Close). I'm a big fan of VIX an monitoring it for signs of extreme sentiment. Thanks for your post.
1994-1997 period is quite different. VIX went up from 11 to 35 but SPY went from $47 to $92. My view is this is a correlation study, deem to be fuzzy rather than scientific or quantitative accurate. The purpose is to have one more perspective for "timing the market", an effort in many ways futile. So I would be happy if this chart can give me an alert, and I would use trend line, MA cross, divergence, RSI, etc. together to make an "exit" call. Thanks for your comment (and greatly appreciates all your nice charts!)