My past posts should show a bit of the outlook I expect over the course of the next 3 weeks. I will say I did not expect the violent rally into the end of last week, but like all good traders should know, nothing is ever certain with the markets. I still believe price will visit 3680 (or at the very least 3848) before we see above 4100. there is nothing but good news regarding the markets and outlook of the country right now. In other words...complacency. Now sentiment alone is not something to trade off of, but now that my VVIX trend has broken down for the first time in over a year, I can fully say I believe this pullback will happen swiftly and violently, and the bounce will likely be very violent as well. there is a window of weakness currently and watch DXY and USDJPY closely to see which shows their hand first. Nothing is ever a guarantee, but it is time to load the rifle and take a shot here. Study up and sell the rip monday, even if big daddy Powell speaks this week, there isn't much he can say to pump this glutton of a market. As always do your own research and be ready to adapt to whatever this week brings. Even with my shot being loaded here, there is no guarantee of anything going my way in the weeks to come. Traders adapt. Be smart, trust price, and enjoy it. Cheers.
Trade active:
Well we sure had to be patient right? I must confess if you entered here you wouldve likely closed down after that first induction around 4/20...but the Vol explosion over the last 10 days dragging this market down has come to the all important pivot: 4100. if you have been keeping up you will know how important I viewed this area before we hit it and even after its been obtained. As of now the window for even MORE vol explosion is coming and open going into the FOMC meeting of June 15th...this market has shown no clues where it wants to go. For now I would look MT to LT to build short positions, but you must be smart playing the ST...scalping day trades here on spy and qqq will be your best friend. any overnight positions will be too risky for my taste, but you can take shots off what you see. All of my correlations are all messed up right because the market is doing what it does best: confuse and frustrate. In these times its most important to zoom out and look at what price is showing you. BTC and all the other cryptos have been taken behind the barn after stealing the spotlight the last couple of months. It is my belief that this will bleed into the equities market and soon. Whether this sell is 10% or less (slight chance of even more) i have no clear clue yet, but know all longs here must be managed well and not to be greedy. I will post my chart and my future outlook here soon. best of luck, cheers.