VWO: Emerging Markets ETF, Equity Weakness Worldwide?
Part 3. Three days ago I published Parts 1 and 2 for the-S&P and-IWM. (2,500 stocks total).
I wanted to share with you the emerging markets.
In my opinion they are weak, trend-less with a downward bias, and the risk/ reward ratio is to the down side.
VWO-is an ETF consisting of shares in the following countries:
China 23.23%
Taiwan, Province of China 15.35%
India 12.12%
Brazil 8.57%
South Africa 7.42%
Hong Kong 5.80%
Mexico 4.46%
Malaysia 3.92%
Russian Federation 3.91%
Thailand 2.99%
Kind of looks like the-S&P-500, doesn't it? This is an extremely difficult market in which you will find winning stocks .
You have to be very good to select the end of the draw-down periods and go long in the winners.
The rotation into and out of stock groups has been fast and furious. As for-VWO:
Let's put it this way, your upside gain is 1% to 2%, down-side 10%-15% +. This is not a good risk/ reward ratio.
Here are eleven negatives I see in-VWO, and why I feel this is a sell:
1. Sell Fractal in effect.
2. Alligator jaws NOW OPENING in tandem with sell Fractals. Alligator feeding in new down-trend. THIS IS YOUR DIRECTIONAL COMPASS.
3. Chop indicator (under chart) is ENTERING the shaded area.
4. Forward Ichimoku leading span (lower top indicator) is below the zero line. **
5. 34 day moving average (top indicator)-is bearish .
6. Prices are trading into the Ichimoku Cloud . This is a sell signal.
8. Prices are trading below the Ki jun-Sen baseline of the Ichimoku Cloud . This is a sell signal.
9. Prices are trading below the thick red Ichimoku Cloud conversion line. This is a sell signal.
10. The Ki jun-Sen baseline of the Ichimoku Cloud direction is heading lower. This is a sell signal.
11. The CHOP ZONE indicator (under chart) is red, indicating a down trend.
** The lower top indicator is a forward projection as follows: For an estimation of possible FORWARD TRENDING I use the Ichimoku Cloud Senkou Span A (Leading Span A): (Conversion Line + Base Line)/2)). This is the midpoint between the Conversion Line and the Base Line. The Leading Span A forms one of the two Cloud boundaries. It is referred to as "Leading" because it is plotted 26 periods in the future and forms the faster Cloud boundary. I then make an oscillator out of this and plot the progress up and down around a “zero line”.
I HAVE THE RESULTS OF THESE CALCULATIONS FOR-VWO IN THE TOP LOWER INDICATOR. IT IS VERY NEGATIVE.
I see very soft markets in the United States, Europe, and, emerging markets around the world.
My advice: because of severe rotation, it's hard to follow trend. I recommend long positions only after draw-downs to support levels.
If you do not do this you increase your chances of a loss.
I hope this has been helpful. May all of your trades go well. Don.
I wanted to share with you the emerging markets.
In my opinion they are weak, trend-less with a downward bias, and the risk/ reward ratio is to the down side.
VWO-is an ETF consisting of shares in the following countries:
China 23.23%
Taiwan, Province of China 15.35%
India 12.12%
Brazil 8.57%
South Africa 7.42%
Hong Kong 5.80%
Mexico 4.46%
Malaysia 3.92%
Russian Federation 3.91%
Thailand 2.99%
Kind of looks like the-S&P-500, doesn't it? This is an extremely difficult market in which you will find winning stocks .
You have to be very good to select the end of the draw-down periods and go long in the winners.
The rotation into and out of stock groups has been fast and furious. As for-VWO:
Let's put it this way, your upside gain is 1% to 2%, down-side 10%-15% +. This is not a good risk/ reward ratio.
Here are eleven negatives I see in-VWO, and why I feel this is a sell:
1. Sell Fractal in effect.
2. Alligator jaws NOW OPENING in tandem with sell Fractals. Alligator feeding in new down-trend. THIS IS YOUR DIRECTIONAL COMPASS.
3. Chop indicator (under chart) is ENTERING the shaded area.
4. Forward Ichimoku leading span (lower top indicator) is below the zero line. **
5. 34 day moving average (top indicator)-is bearish .
6. Prices are trading into the Ichimoku Cloud . This is a sell signal.
8. Prices are trading below the Ki jun-Sen baseline of the Ichimoku Cloud . This is a sell signal.
9. Prices are trading below the thick red Ichimoku Cloud conversion line. This is a sell signal.
10. The Ki jun-Sen baseline of the Ichimoku Cloud direction is heading lower. This is a sell signal.
11. The CHOP ZONE indicator (under chart) is red, indicating a down trend.
** The lower top indicator is a forward projection as follows: For an estimation of possible FORWARD TRENDING I use the Ichimoku Cloud Senkou Span A (Leading Span A): (Conversion Line + Base Line)/2)). This is the midpoint between the Conversion Line and the Base Line. The Leading Span A forms one of the two Cloud boundaries. It is referred to as "Leading" because it is plotted 26 periods in the future and forms the faster Cloud boundary. I then make an oscillator out of this and plot the progress up and down around a “zero line”.
I HAVE THE RESULTS OF THESE CALCULATIONS FOR-VWO IN THE TOP LOWER INDICATOR. IT IS VERY NEGATIVE.
I see very soft markets in the United States, Europe, and, emerging markets around the world.
My advice: because of severe rotation, it's hard to follow trend. I recommend long positions only after draw-downs to support levels.
If you do not do this you increase your chances of a loss.
I hope this has been helpful. May all of your trades go well. Don.
