Wilshire forms long term death cross, riding the gates of Hades
While most people have eyes fixated on the ever elusive
SPY
and
QQQ
, completely skewed by the movement of the 7 generals (FAANG-MT) and a few other giant outliers like
NVDA
, the broader Wilshire index has been riding along the gates of hell for nearly a year. Both the 10WMA and 50WMA have triggered the death cross with the 200WMA. MMT induced inflation is still sky high, public economic numbers seem to be on an overdose high while true fundamentals are crumbling beneath the surface, resulting in sudden unexpected and chaotic events such as the fall of
SVB
and $CS. Credit debt, CLOs, CMOs, leveraged loans, and derivatives positioning are at casino gambling levels beyond all known history that the only word one could use is - insanity.
How many have tried to drive a car with a broken engine, a bicycle with no chain or repair an apartment floor whose foundation complex is cracked and sinking into the ground? I believe these are realistic analogs to the fantasy MMT drugged stock market and, as much as this thing likes to crush the bears over and over again, eventually a reality connected to fundamentals, the people, the land, its resources and life sustaining food will return.
What I observe is that if the Wilshire falls through the gates of hell below, then the entire fantasy land could crumble. Where to? Well, if we have broken the 10WMA, 50WMA and 200WMA, then the natural next targets would be 50MMA and 200MMA which are off the charts, far far far below.
As for positioning, I always say
CASH
is best. Maybe some $GICs now with soaring interesting rates; and possibly bonds. Finally, if you dare to be a bear then short it; but know that the current will almost always be against you. Gamble for the very short term 0DTE or very long term (4-16 months out) and know you can possily lose it all still. GL.
SPY
and
QQQ
, completely skewed by the movement of the 7 generals (FAANG-MT) and a few other giant outliers like
NVDA
, the broader Wilshire index has been riding along the gates of hell for nearly a year. Both the 10WMA and 50WMA have triggered the death cross with the 200WMA. MMT induced inflation is still sky high, public economic numbers seem to be on an overdose high while true fundamentals are crumbling beneath the surface, resulting in sudden unexpected and chaotic events such as the fall of
SVB
and $CS. Credit debt, CLOs, CMOs, leveraged loans, and derivatives positioning are at casino gambling levels beyond all known history that the only word one could use is - insanity. How many have tried to drive a car with a broken engine, a bicycle with no chain or repair an apartment floor whose foundation complex is cracked and sinking into the ground? I believe these are realistic analogs to the fantasy MMT drugged stock market and, as much as this thing likes to crush the bears over and over again, eventually a reality connected to fundamentals, the people, the land, its resources and life sustaining food will return.
What I observe is that if the Wilshire falls through the gates of hell below, then the entire fantasy land could crumble. Where to? Well, if we have broken the 10WMA, 50WMA and 200WMA, then the natural next targets would be 50MMA and 200MMA which are off the charts, far far far below.
As for positioning, I always say
CASH
is best. Maybe some $GICs now with soaring interesting rates; and possibly bonds. Finally, if you dare to be a bear then short it; but know that the current will almost always be against you. Gamble for the very short term 0DTE or very long term (4-16 months out) and know you can possily lose it all still. GL.