Hello to everyone worried about Wish! it's been a long time since we've bag holding this "meme" stock. I know how you feel because I feel the same as you do. Don't worry about the losses you are experiencing at the moment. After all, it's really humane to make mistakes, make wrong assumptions, and act the wrong way. It happens to everyone from time to time, not only in markets but in life as well. The point of this experience is to learn from it so that in the future you somehow don't repeat the same mistakes. I am here to provide you with a more philosophical approach to this investment rather than any major technical or fundamental advice. Philosophy IMO is really important when you are chasing big multiples and you are trying to grasp the big picture. This is going to be my last post for the upcoming 6months, I am taking a long break from the markets because I need to reset my dopamine and take care of my mental health.
First, let's start with some technicals and fundamentals and then move to the philosophical aspects of this speculation-"investment"-trade.
This graph is my second guess of a possible Wyckoff accumulation expecting a rock bottom somewhere close to the release of Q1 results.
The upcoming results are somehow important for the following reasons:
1. It will mark the 1st ever results of the newly assembled executive team.
2. Any signs of monthly users stabilization, engagement, and revenue should be visible.
3. Guidance will be given about Q2.
4. Probably some news regarding France?
5. A "secret ace"? something that we cannot yet see? Crypto-Fintech?
Now in Q2 as the management team has informed us last year will be the Q when changes should become visible. Q2 results will probably be the most critical in the history of Wish (in the middle of the summer when I hope most of you including myself will be on a beach enjoying the summer holidays. You should all visit the Greek Islands by the way!!! feel free to dm for tips, avoid Mykonos at all costs unless your wish hits $500 hahaha).
In case these changes take place for real it will definitely boost the market's confidence in the new management team and the turnaround chances will increase, algos will readjust and i would expect to push the price somewhere close to the $5-$7.5 range($3-4.5b market cap, or P/S of 3-4.5 based on the assumptions that this year Wish rev will be close to $1b).
Here is the hard part! most of us will be still losing money after holding this stock for over a year and probably as I have experienced in a previous turnaround, the stock price should rise rapidly, giving no opportunity for someone to buy. Because we've been bag-holding for so long and the pain is for good deep inside us, most of us will sell in order to relieve pain! the rest will think oh my god RSI is at 90 I will sell and then buy cheaper! Guess what? you will not be given the chance to load again! Most likely you will buy before a major correction where the last retail will be selling that's wave 2!!!
Think about this: institutions have been accumulating for the last quarter but retail is still holding a large portion. Any retail left is not selling even if it hits $0.01 because they have nothing to lose down here. So how are the big guys going to steal your stocks now? Only with a furious rise and a very very sharp correction as I mentioned above. Think it vice versa! when a stock crushes -50% from ATH with huge Volume this is when big guys are selling and you are buying because you believe that a -50% drop is an opportunity! then there is a relief rally where you think you are correct and then it goes to -90%.
Philosophical Approach
1. E-commerce is a sector that's it's going to expand despite the fact that it's in a small downturn at the moment due to covid! people will come back when they understand how easy, faster, and cheaper is to shop online.
2. Mobile e-commerce is going to expand at higher rates vs web e-commerce
3. Millenials-Gen Z are the future customers, see how addicted became to Tik-Tok - (Wish Clips), data=higher chances of addiction, addiction leads to money! People want more Dopamine!
4. Do you know how the casino makes money? Whale hunting!! it's everywhere in nature, 20% of a group drives 80% of the results!!! Think of the following: based on Wish's latest 10-K (ir.wish.com/static-f...5f-bdc1-27fbb4438db9) they had 38m Long Term Buyers at the end of 21. In 2020 they stated that they had 100m Monthly Active Users! so 38% of them stayed as customers even with bad merchants, long shipping times, no ads, and with the old App UI. Can you imagine what will happen when the 3 pillars of the turnaround take place and ads resume?
5. Any company in the world right now that has DATA of any kind is valuable. Wish has managed to obtain so much data over the world, and not any data but the data of upcoming poor Gen-Z which inevitably will look for cheaper solutions and a more fun way to shop. DATA is the new oil, end of story!
6. Someone might argue well there is huge competition in the market right now how wish will compete with Amazon, Baba, Pinduodo, JD, etc... well these players are so big that they cannot change their strategy because their customer mix is way different than that of Wish. This is the reason why Amazon and Baba wanted to buy Wish back in 2015! so to diversify their customer base.
7. Wish is now one of the most well-known stocks on the market! Of course for a bad reason, but this is not necessarily a bad thing. You better be known for something (bad reputation) than be unknown. I like this quote a lot " The more men as a group disagree about a woman's look, the more end up liking her". Imagine what can happen in the case of "selling" the turnaround story. Moon!
8. Even if there is no turnaround in the worst-case scenario, do you think that the VCs that still holding and insiders want to sell at $2/piece? There is going to be a game! a pump a dump at least, so even if you feel trapped you will have your chance to exit. IMO the $9 gap will be filled and after that, we can re-adjust our thinking based also on broader market conditions.
9. Wish is trying to become Tik-Tok & Amazon at the same time! create your profile! show products in an entertaining way and become a seller influencer! 1-click video-buy
All of the above are out of my head. There is a high chance my brain is making these thoughts so that I can compensate myself for the bad decision I made back in the summer. I keep holding and I AM NOT FUCKING LEAVING! IT'S JUST MONEY SAM!
I am ready to average down BIG TIME either in $1.50-$1.60 or if there is a break of $2.50-$2.60. I would be happy to hear your thoughts on this!
Please do your own research and reflection and as Tradingview moto Look First/Then Leap
First, let's start with some technicals and fundamentals and then move to the philosophical aspects of this speculation-"investment"-trade.
This graph is my second guess of a possible Wyckoff accumulation expecting a rock bottom somewhere close to the release of Q1 results.
The upcoming results are somehow important for the following reasons:
1. It will mark the 1st ever results of the newly assembled executive team.
2. Any signs of monthly users stabilization, engagement, and revenue should be visible.
3. Guidance will be given about Q2.
4. Probably some news regarding France?
5. A "secret ace"? something that we cannot yet see? Crypto-Fintech?
Now in Q2 as the management team has informed us last year will be the Q when changes should become visible. Q2 results will probably be the most critical in the history of Wish (in the middle of the summer when I hope most of you including myself will be on a beach enjoying the summer holidays. You should all visit the Greek Islands by the way!!! feel free to dm for tips, avoid Mykonos at all costs unless your wish hits $500 hahaha).
In case these changes take place for real it will definitely boost the market's confidence in the new management team and the turnaround chances will increase, algos will readjust and i would expect to push the price somewhere close to the $5-$7.5 range($3-4.5b market cap, or P/S of 3-4.5 based on the assumptions that this year Wish rev will be close to $1b).
Here is the hard part! most of us will be still losing money after holding this stock for over a year and probably as I have experienced in a previous turnaround, the stock price should rise rapidly, giving no opportunity for someone to buy. Because we've been bag-holding for so long and the pain is for good deep inside us, most of us will sell in order to relieve pain! the rest will think oh my god RSI is at 90 I will sell and then buy cheaper! Guess what? you will not be given the chance to load again! Most likely you will buy before a major correction where the last retail will be selling that's wave 2!!!
Think about this: institutions have been accumulating for the last quarter but retail is still holding a large portion. Any retail left is not selling even if it hits $0.01 because they have nothing to lose down here. So how are the big guys going to steal your stocks now? Only with a furious rise and a very very sharp correction as I mentioned above. Think it vice versa! when a stock crushes -50% from ATH with huge Volume this is when big guys are selling and you are buying because you believe that a -50% drop is an opportunity! then there is a relief rally where you think you are correct and then it goes to -90%.
Philosophical Approach
1. E-commerce is a sector that's it's going to expand despite the fact that it's in a small downturn at the moment due to covid! people will come back when they understand how easy, faster, and cheaper is to shop online.
2. Mobile e-commerce is going to expand at higher rates vs web e-commerce
3. Millenials-Gen Z are the future customers, see how addicted became to Tik-Tok - (Wish Clips), data=higher chances of addiction, addiction leads to money! People want more Dopamine!
4. Do you know how the casino makes money? Whale hunting!! it's everywhere in nature, 20% of a group drives 80% of the results!!! Think of the following: based on Wish's latest 10-K (ir.wish.com/static-f...5f-bdc1-27fbb4438db9) they had 38m Long Term Buyers at the end of 21. In 2020 they stated that they had 100m Monthly Active Users! so 38% of them stayed as customers even with bad merchants, long shipping times, no ads, and with the old App UI. Can you imagine what will happen when the 3 pillars of the turnaround take place and ads resume?
5. Any company in the world right now that has DATA of any kind is valuable. Wish has managed to obtain so much data over the world, and not any data but the data of upcoming poor Gen-Z which inevitably will look for cheaper solutions and a more fun way to shop. DATA is the new oil, end of story!
6. Someone might argue well there is huge competition in the market right now how wish will compete with Amazon, Baba, Pinduodo, JD, etc... well these players are so big that they cannot change their strategy because their customer mix is way different than that of Wish. This is the reason why Amazon and Baba wanted to buy Wish back in 2015! so to diversify their customer base.
7. Wish is now one of the most well-known stocks on the market! Of course for a bad reason, but this is not necessarily a bad thing. You better be known for something (bad reputation) than be unknown. I like this quote a lot " The more men as a group disagree about a woman's look, the more end up liking her". Imagine what can happen in the case of "selling" the turnaround story. Moon!
8. Even if there is no turnaround in the worst-case scenario, do you think that the VCs that still holding and insiders want to sell at $2/piece? There is going to be a game! a pump a dump at least, so even if you feel trapped you will have your chance to exit. IMO the $9 gap will be filled and after that, we can re-adjust our thinking based also on broader market conditions.
9. Wish is trying to become Tik-Tok & Amazon at the same time! create your profile! show products in an entertaining way and become a seller influencer! 1-click video-buy
All of the above are out of my head. There is a high chance my brain is making these thoughts so that I can compensate myself for the bad decision I made back in the summer. I keep holding and I AM NOT FUCKING LEAVING! IT'S JUST MONEY SAM!
I am ready to average down BIG TIME either in $1.50-$1.60 or if there is a break of $2.50-$2.60. I would be happy to hear your thoughts on this!
Please do your own research and reflection and as Tradingview moto Look First/Then Leap