I decided to review big picture on this market and found it interesting and very clear in particular after applying some techniques from Neo-waver theory helping with wave starting point identification. Sorry for posting daily chart which looks a bit messy, but tradingview allows you to scroll it what is very handy this this situation since this lets you see the whole picture starting from Feb 2016 at acceptable zoom level. You will find below screenshots of the higher time -frame, which do not require scrolling. Ok, let’s start.
At weekly/monthly timeframe, the market is in correction mode. Yep, this was a surprise to me also, but if you will get to the same conclusion after seeing the wave break-down. Now we are in wave X, of a complex W-X-Y correction. Wave W started from $42 low on 24 Dec 2018 and formed double zigzag with $66.46 peek. Why do I believe that it is W-X-Y corrective structure?
I started to breakdown waves on daily chard starting from Feb 2016 low and found that (you can either scroll the main chart to Feb 2016 or look at weekly screenshot below):
At weekly timeframe the price is moving in upward channel from Feb 2016
First move up has double zigzag structure (W) followed by
Complex (flat by nature) wave (X), followed by
Double zigzag (Y) again.
After that flat-ish levitation at the top during summer 2018 followed by very strong move from $77 down to $42 level. I labelled this (A)-(B)-(C). The strong move down I mistakenly considered as motive wave of a downtrend, but not anymore.
Then market flew up to $66 level in shape of … double zigzag again! It reverted ~70% too quick to consider this move as correction of a downtrend. What also found is tremendous similarity with double zigzag started in Feb 2016 – see purple rectangle .
Then, we saw zig-zag down to $55 level, where the price was rejected and went up very quickly.
See weekly screenshot.
Monthly view.
All this made me believe that:
As it is obvious at monthly level - market is not trending, but correcting as W-X-Y within upward channel. Waves W and X are complete. Wave Y is still developing.
If we believe that market repeat itself, then structure of wave Y (orange) should be something similar to wave W – two double zigzags connected via long lasting range bound wave (X). The waves tend to be balanced in time in particular at high timeframe. Therefore wave (X) must take significant time, may be a year before upward (Y) starts.
At weekly/monthly timeframe, the market is in correction mode. Yep, this was a surprise to me also, but if you will get to the same conclusion after seeing the wave break-down. Now we are in wave X, of a complex W-X-Y correction. Wave W started from $42 low on 24 Dec 2018 and formed double zigzag with $66.46 peek. Why do I believe that it is W-X-Y corrective structure?
I started to breakdown waves on daily chard starting from Feb 2016 low and found that (you can either scroll the main chart to Feb 2016 or look at weekly screenshot below):
At weekly timeframe the price is moving in upward channel from Feb 2016
First move up has double zigzag structure (W) followed by
Complex (flat by nature) wave (X), followed by
Double zigzag (Y) again.
After that flat-ish levitation at the top during summer 2018 followed by very strong move from $77 down to $42 level. I labelled this (A)-(B)-(C). The strong move down I mistakenly considered as motive wave of a downtrend, but not anymore.
Then market flew up to $66 level in shape of … double zigzag again! It reverted ~70% too quick to consider this move as correction of a downtrend. What also found is tremendous similarity with double zigzag started in Feb 2016 – see purple rectangle .
Then, we saw zig-zag down to $55 level, where the price was rejected and went up very quickly.
See weekly screenshot.
Monthly view.
All this made me believe that:
As it is obvious at monthly level - market is not trending, but correcting as W-X-Y within upward channel. Waves W and X are complete. Wave Y is still developing.
If we believe that market repeat itself, then structure of wave Y (orange) should be something similar to wave W – two double zigzags connected via long lasting range bound wave (X). The waves tend to be balanced in time in particular at high timeframe. Therefore wave (X) must take significant time, may be a year before upward (Y) starts.