As per DXY big picture downtrend started in March in not yet over, it may go all the way to 85 (61% correction level), at least 88.
My major hypothesis is that wave III is incomplete yet, and I am expecting DXY to resume its move down towards 90. One of the reasons is absence of RSI divergence, but also the fact that trendlines on AUD/USD, Gold and other...
Credit expansion period has finished in 2008, what became the lowest turning point for DXY. Credit contraction means no way for USD devaluation, so it can only rise from there. No credit expansion means no inflation, whatever central banks are doing is not inflationary (see "Steven Van Metre" youtube channel ) despite majority perceives "money printing" should...
As you know DXY is extremely oversold, net long position on EUR is the largest in the history. The chances it to turn around are growing every day.
Looking at USD/CAD, it is getting closer to the previous down-trend line and I am expecting it to become a support line. In my chart it is 1.3050 level, but I realize that it can go to the round figure level that's...
Oil looks overbought (no surprise) and very heavy.
The entire structure from 8th of June look like a flat, without motive waves but only 3-wave structures . I am expecting a move down in shape of 5 wave structure to complete wave C of the flat.
I am expecting oil to go down, but stock market and AUD/USD to go up next couple of weeks. With this assumption AUD/CAD should perform extremely well.
At the moment it is right on top of a trend line. Even though it seems like being breaking the trend line - this happens sideways, what is not counted normally. I am expecting a sharp move upward with target around 0.97
Looking at EUR/USD and AUD/USD I believe stock market will go higher next couple of week till next Non Farm Payrolls release which most likely show very different unemployment from what was shown in May.
Most likely it is building a complex correction of W-X-Y, where W and Y have 3 waves structure with A = C, therefore I am expecting 3,400 to the the target.
EUR/USD was correcting last couple of weeks and finished a week right on top of a nice support. It is currently in 4th wave, which is forming a flat correction pattern, i.e. not expected to be too deep, currently between 32%-50% levels.
I will not be surprised if EUR/USD starts rising at Monday open. Moving above the last local peak at 1.125 would confirm the...
Yesterday it reached 50% retracement level.
Last 6 day move formed 5 wave structure (see lower level breakdown below) which is the final wave 5 of the extremely extended move.
Invalidation level $39
Near term target: $35, then $32 and $28-$29 area
Flat correction started on Wednesday is expected to complete on Monday at area between 9,300 and 9,400. Then probably two days rally should bring it 10,400 (the first conservative target based on head & shoulder pattern) or even to 10,650 - 10,700 the area of convergence of 0.618 correction of wave iii of the downtrend and 0.618 extension of the combined waves 1...
5th wave seems complete, supported by RSI divergence. I believe it is good time for selling it with stop right at the recent top. On weekly/monthly chart it does not look nice for deep down-trend so far. I will be selling till RSI/STOC indicate oversold.
It is a super long-term forecast, which will look amazingly perfect for Elliott waver (I hope) but depressing for everybody. Looking at DJI chart from 1932 year (bottom of the Great Depression crash), you may find that it developed in perfect 5 waves till 1987, when market crashed extremely sharp (still the records are not beaten). From EV perspective the top of...
Market crush in 1929 was in form of ABC correction (on DJI chart) with
wave A correcting 50% of the peak price very sharply (within 2 months)
wave B correcting about 50% of A (within 5 months)
wave C equals to 1.2 extension of A, but it is 86% price drop from the peak of wave B (within 2 years)
Similar is happening now across all major indices. Next...