OIL FORECAST

Fundamental Factor:
* US crude production has slowed down considerably since the beginning of the year, mainly because active oil rigs drop down, although a bit higher than this week last year, they're pumping less crude.
* Venezuela political disaster and continuously rolling in whole nation black-outs are a critical factor in the oil production plunging. Additionally, Washington continues to appeal foreigner traders and refineries that are not covered but the last round of sanctions to stop buying oil to the Venezuelan socialist government.(www.reuters.com/arti...ezuela-idUSKCN1R92ET)
* OPEC is keeping its oil production cuts alongside with Russia as a Non-OPEC country, is collaborating with the world supply.
* Mexico national oil company, PEMEX, is crossing a tough moment where also the political differences among the board of director and president have caused the resignation of 3 independent members. Lopez Obrador is trying to have tighter control over the oil industry which has been opening to international investments since 2013.(www.wsj.com/articles...ferences-11553789184)
* Saudi Arabia is confident and keeping up its agenda to push oil price to 70$ per barrel. Leading the OPEC cartel where the primary goal is to keep lowering the oil inventories to rebalance the market price.(www.reuters.com...l-idUSKCN1R31IP?rpc=401&am...)


Technical Analysis
Technically speaking is looking like a strong reversal (up-trending temporally to 61.8 Fib level) for a downtrend continuation and a re-test of 40$ levels. In case bulls can break that resistance, market would feel more confidente in reaching the OPEC price goal.