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The Ukraine crisis has had an impact on global markets

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NASDAQ:XAU   PHLX Gold and Silver Sector Index
oday’s Forex news: The Ukraine crisis has had an impact on global markets
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There has been an impact on global markets caused by the Ukraine crisis. Russia has more than 100,000 troops massed near Ukraine and the US has repeatedly said an invasion is imminent. However, Moscow denies any such plans and has accused the West of “hysteria” and markets are of the mind that diplomacy will prevail.

Comments from US President Joe Biden raised concerns of an imminent military attack by Russia over Ukraine. Not only the US but the UK and Eurozone leaders also flashed worrisome signals for the much-debated geopolitical event.

It’s worth noting, however, that Russian President Vladimir Putin termed any such claims as ‘provocative speculation’, per AFP News. However, market players seemed to not believe in Putin’s comments, Standoff with Russia over Ukraine heads into most tense week yet. Amid these plays, the US 10-year Treasury yields lick their wounds around 1.95%, after shedding over 11 basis points (bps) the previous day. Further, the S&P 500 Futures print mild gains by the press time.

In UK, uncertainty around the January Consumer Price Index release is high, in part because of the CPI basket re-weighting, but also due to significant surprises in other countries January CPI prints. In the UK, fuel prices likely fell slightly while food prices continued to accelerate, leaving inflation little changed from Dec. But look for inflation to rise from here, peaking above 7% in April. The data will be out on Wednesday 16 February.

In other events for the week, the Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes will be released and traders will be on the lookout for discussions regarding near-term policy plans. market will be paying particular attention to plans for balance sheet normalization steps, following the release of the normalization "principles" in Jan. The minutes might seem stale, however, given the recent strength in macro data. The focus will then turn to US Retail Sales where an improvement on December's sharp decline could be supportive to the US dollar.

the UK's labour force will be put under the spotlight as well this week in the labour market report. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will be closely watching labour market tightness. Market expect the unemployment rate to remain unchanged, with some softening in wage growth. Flash Jan PAYE data will provide further insights on Omicron-period hiring; firms hired at their fastest pace on record in Dec.

The pound's strength against the dollar of late has been down to the expectations of the Bank of England. There are as many as another 150 bps in increases are priced in for the remainder of the year by the Bank of England compared to nearly 170 bps by the US Federal Reserve. However, there are economic headwinds that could weigh on the pound down to surging inflation.

GBP/USD remains At 1.3566 ,which is 0.14% higher in the open this week as markets find solace in the absence of any weekend escalation with regards to Russia and the US warning that an invasion of Ukraine could begin any day. The announcements roiled markets on Friday and GBP/USD fell almost 70 pips to a low of 1.3545.

The major currency pair dropped the most in two weeks the previous day while EUR/USD remained on the back foot during the early Asian session on Monday, despite recent inaction around 1.1340-45.
Alternatively, a clear upside past 1.1485 isn’t a green card to the EUR/USD bulls as another resistance zone comprising October 2021 lows near 1.1530 will challenge the pair’s upside momentum.

USD/CAD consolidates recent gains inside a bearish channel formation, stepping back from the resistance line to 1.2730 during Monday’s Asian session.

AUD/USD under pressure due to US warnings of a Russian invasion.AUD/USD ended lower by 0.50% as well to 0.7130, with its bullish campaign potentially coming to a swift end at this juncture.

NZD/USD begins the week on a softer footing near 0.6645, fading the corrective pullback from intraday low following a two-day decline.

XAU/USD grinds below $1,873 hurdle on inflation, geopolitical fears

WTI crude oil prices remain firmer around $93.00, up 0.85% intraday after refreshing the multi-day peak during Monday’s Asian session. That said, the black gold rose to the fresh high since September 2021 while flashing a $93.17 level before a few minutes.
It’s worth noting that the recent indecision over the Fed’s rate hike and cautious optimism also underpins oil prices. Additionally, the OPEC+ members’ inability to match the production hike targets amid geopolitical concerns also favors the oil buyers.
Looking forward, WTI crude oil prices are likely depending upon heading concerning Russia invasion and Fed-rate-hike with weekly inventories and FOMC minutes will be the key data/events to watch for intermediate moves.

#Mitrade #DollarIndex #YieldCurve #Inflation #Gold #USDJPY #EURUSD #GBPUSD


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