Gold price today July 31: The gold market is unpredictable

Although inflation remains anchored at a high level, some analysts have noted that it continues to fall in the right direction that will lead the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged in September's decision to raise interest rates. . The ability of the central bank to stop tightening policy continues to support gold prices.

Analysts note that growing fissures in consumption are also supporting gold prices, as reports show that personal income has not kept pace with consumption.

Personal income rose 0.3 percent in June, compared with a revised 0.5 percent gain in May. The data fell short of expectations as economists looked for and expected a gain of zero. 5%.

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Gold sold off after the US posted better-than-expected job growth. However, gold turned to rise to around $1,960 per ounce at the end of the week.

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According to Kitco News' gold price survey, retail investors have the view that gold prices will increase in the near term.

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Meanwhile, precious metals experts are somewhat more cautious when they think that gold is losing its clear direction from US economic indicators. Therefore, the gold price is predicted by experts to be somewhat mixed.

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The Gold Forecast's Gary Wagner said he sees further downside risks to the precious metal in the coming days.

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Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at SIA Wealth Management, also sees precious metals trending lower in the near term.

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Adrian Day, President of Adrian Day Asset Management, sees recent Fed statements and persistent inflation as bullish factors for gold.

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This weekend, on August 4, the US will release the employment report and the unemployment rate in July. Forecast of the unemployment rate in July in the US is only 3.6%, lower than the 3.7% monthly rate. 6.

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Experts said that if the US jobs report is positive and the unemployment rate falls below or equal to the forecast, the golden girl will continue to fall deeply.

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Last week, 14 Wall Street analysts participated in Kitco News' gold survey. Of which 36% of experts believe that the price of gold will increase next week, 28% of analysts believe that the price of gold will decrease. The remaining 36% of analysts believe that gold prices will move sideways in the near future.

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Meanwhile, 322 votes were cast in online polls. Of these, 158 respondents, or 49%, expect gold to rise in the near term. Another 106 people, equivalent to 33%, think that the price of gold will be lower, the remaining 58 people, or 18%, think that the price of gold will move sideways in the near future.

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Last week, gold prices rebounded on the back of a slightly weaker dollar as signs of US inflation cooled. Money markets are focusing on the decisions of the Federal Reserve (Fed) during the likely end of the monetary tightening cycle.

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Data released on Friday showed that annual U.S. inflation slowed significantly in June. The Personal Consumption Price Index (PCE), which is of particular interest to the Fed, rose 0.2% last month. there. Rising interest rates make holding gold less attractive to investors, as gold does not yield interest.

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However, it is suggested that the Fed may not be too worried about stronger economic data if inflation continues to fall. This led to the view that the Fed may have completed its rate hike cycle, contributing to the drop in gold prices.

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Inflation in the past 12 months increased by 4.1%, down sharply from the increase of 4.6% in June. Annual inflation also decreased slightly compared to economists' expectations (4.2%). Inflation fell sharply, but it was still nearly double the target level that the US Federal Reserve (FED) is doing everything to achieve.

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Although inflation remains high, some analysts have noted that it continues to fall in the right direction. This may convince the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in September. The ability of the central bank to stop tightening policy continues to support gold prices.

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The first estimate of US gross domestic product for the second quarter came in at a 2.4% year-on-year increase, beating market expectations for a 2.0% gain. The internals of the GDP report are also solid. Meanwhile, US durable goods orders were reported to have increased 4.7% in June against expectations for a 1.5% increase.

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Following the data, the dollar index rose 0.8% against its rivals, making gold more expensive for holders of other currencies. Yields on 10-year US bonds rose to two-week high..

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The world gold price fell today after the Fed raised interest rates by 25 percentage points and brought interest rates to a 22-year high. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said he may pause rate hikes at the next meeting. However, Mr. Powell noted, a rate cut is very unlikely this year.

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Analysts said that the gold market will not have a new breakthrough, but the trend will still increase in the near future. According to analysts, the tough monetary policy stance of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) weakens the economy.

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In a recent report, the US Department of Labor said that the economy created 209,000 jobs in June. This is the first time the employment data has failed to meet expectations since May 2022.