timwest
Long

XAUUSD - GOLD/U.S. Dollar has 10% upside in next 60 days

FX:XAUUSD   Gold/U.S. Dollar
919 27 18
Gold             has been going through cycles of capitulation and euphoria forever, but the past few cycles look interesting. Note each selloff looks like a disaster on the chart with "terminal" declines in 2 of the last 3 cases. The triangle breakdown this spring caused a healthy wipe-out of any tight stops and set the market up for a decent advance each time.

Time will tell - for now I don't have any fundamental reason for gold             to go up but for now the chart seems "wiped out" enough for a rally to create a new pattern of "euphoria".

Tim 9:19PM EST 1307.48 -3.29 last Sunday, August 10, 2014
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iggi8899
2 years ago
A fundamental reason could be a trade war that weakens the U.S. dollar. Moreover the fed may continue QE if economy is affected.
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Excellent post and well written description. Thank you.
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timwest PRO BestOnlineTrades.com
2 years ago
I'm glad you like it. Thanks for telling me.
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I also wanted to add the September 3rd, 2014 cycle date (from Marty Armstrong). Just keep an eye on it as it could be a key high or low in either USA market or Gold.
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timwest PRO BestOnlineTrades.com
2 years ago
Ok. When was the last cycle date. Which cycle is it?
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thank you for your analysis
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timwest PRO manijeh.kazemi.33
2 years ago
Thanks for letting me know.
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LastBattle
2 years ago
really helpful, thanks.
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timwest PRO LastBattle
2 years ago
I'm glad you found it helpful.
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gpuri
2 years ago
Hi Tim, I was thinking if the capitulation is getting smaller maybe the euphoria will be smaller than the last 2 times.
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timwest PRO gpuri
2 years ago
I see what you mean. I wish I had a more in-depth insight into what the bulls and bears are thinking.
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timwest PRO
2 years ago
It is interesting that the EUPHORIA patterns are in the form of 5-wave Elliott impulse patterns. When those fail it would tend to destroy the optimism of a significant number of traders. From the ashes are what new trends are made from. The ashes, in this case, are the destroyed expectations of a bull move in gold. Again, I don't have a reason for an advance, but then again I haven't understood the declines other than Federal Reserve and Central Bank interest in keeping money from flowing into gold (which is a non-productive, non-economic asset in the way that gold doesn't produce a cash-flow once you invest in it, unlike real estate or a profitable business).
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how can Ithank you ?best of louk
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timwest PRO manijeh.kazemi.33
2 years ago
I'm glad to hear that you like it. I get hundreds of views of my charts and very few people say "thank you". So, "thank you" is good enough. I do have a package of indicators you can subscribe to, but that is way more likely than you were expecting. It is called "KEY HIDDEN LEVELS" in the Marketplace Add-on section. I've designed some novel ways to find support, resistance and trend in the market that are really logical and powerful. Ok, now I sound like a "salesman". Thanks Manijeh.Kazemi
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d.vezeris
2 years ago
If it breaches the 1322 level then I believe it too. I am cautious for a double top there (if it gets there).
snapshot
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timwest PRO d.vezeris
2 years ago
What would your stop be if you wait that long to buy? When I buy "high" after a breakout, I often feel my risk is also the highest at that point unless I used a fixed 3-ATR range stop from my entry. Do you buy the breakout, then buy the pullback to the breakout level and then the subsequent new high after the pullback and split your entry out over 3 prices or more?
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d.vezeris timwest
2 years ago
I agree with you. And you know that I agree with your opinion too that all the Gold Mines has made a long term pattern reversal. As you can see I give a 15m diagram and not a daily. So I spoke only for that moment that in next 15mnts the Gold would decline as it did. Otherwise I agree with your analysis just I think that Gold will be in trouble for 2-3 weeks before it breaches the long term triangle up and reach the 1400.
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TucKinetti
2 years ago
i like your chart… thank U Tim
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waleedkhan
2 years ago
Hi Tim

are you using elliottwave cycles for this analysis...?

Your levels are perfectly aligned with fibonacci extension and retracement levels! It seems you have also included the rules of alternation with the 1365-70 retracement to 1240.

This is a masterpiece - Thanks for sharing!

Good luck to you & everyone!
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timwest PRO waleedkhan
2 years ago
Hello Waleed, I'm not using Elliott Waves but there are two impulsive advances that have 5-wave patterns to them. I'm a student of Glenn Neely and his NeoWave analysis but he has advanced well beyond where I am. Thanks for your comments.
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waleedkhan timwest
2 years ago
This is the second time in a week I've heard someone reference Glen Neely & his Neowave theory...

It looks ambitious (taking elliottwaves to the next level); I think I must be missing out on something grand here?

As far as the forecast is concerned; this 10% spike up could perhaps mean that geopolitical conditions are going to get worse...maybe after all these sanctions on Russia - perhaps they are finally going to ask for all further payments of gas to be paid in "gold" (or something along those lines...)
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timwest PRO waleedkhan
2 years ago
Glenn Neely is truly amazing in his wave labeling and logic. I've known him since 1988. I edited his book "Mastering Elliott Waves" too, so I am a little biased because I know how smart he is. I wrote an article in Cycles Magazine outlining the differences between the methods of Glenn Neely and Robert Prechter to give my impression why they would always seem to have different analysis: Glenn followed the rules of Elliott and added some logical extensions to it. Either way, I know he has been successful in his trading and his forecasting.

As for the forecast, Russia has been buying up gold as fast as possible, but I always know it doesn't matter what the real fundamentals are because gold is a perception. Gold is merely a psychological shift from the need for stability/certainty and the need for growth/investment. But, markets exist to balance out these needs.

I prefer to just do my best to catch waves and find patterns and thankfully, report them here when I can for all of us to see. Hopefully I get it right once in awhile!

Tim

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waleedkhan timwest
2 years ago
Thank you so much for clarifying/vouching for Glen Neely.

I'm sure you are well aware that any new idea that comes and deviates from the "status quo" has its fair share of criticism and skeptism annoted towards it. That is exactly how I felt when I heard of "neowaves" and I honestly just dismissed it; because I'm happy with elliottwaves and have learned to cope with its limitations.

However now that you've said that you knew him personally & know that he has been successful with his forecasting; I'm more than willing to look into neowaves and perhaps improve my understanding of the "the already amazing/fascinating" elliottwaves...

The article that you wrote is it on the internet? I'm definitely going to add "mastering elliott waves" to my reading list. You said that "Glenn followed the rules of elliott and added some logical extensions to it"; does that mean that neowaves can stand on their own? or does one need a thorough knowledge of elliott in order to work with neowaves? Could the overlap lead to any confusion? Lastly I'm curious; where does the work of Scott Carney and his harmonic waves fit in with the neowave theory?

I share the same sentiments about the markets in general...and that is why "patterns" and "waves" play a core part in my trading!

Not many people give credit to where its due Tim! Thank you again for giving credibility to neowaves & of course for all your hard work.

Kind regards
Waleed
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timwest PRO waleedkhan
2 years ago
Thanks for the nice letter Waleed.

The article I wrote on Neely is available the Foundation for the Study of Cycles website. It was in 1989. It looks like they charge for copies of old articles. I recall what I wrote: Essentially, Glenn requires an extended wave for impulsive waves to be confirmed. Glenn allows wave 2 to be a running correction and finish above the high of wave 1. Glenn found that post-pattern action has to confirm the pattern. Most analysts don't seem to require a strict adherence to the rules. I've seen wave 3 drift across the 2-4 trendline in many counts through the years. That's the gist of the article (from 25 years ago, it's still in my head).

As for NeoWave and the book, it is a bit more complicated than you can imagine, so I found other ways to come up with trades that aren't as complicated. But I understand the key components to Glenn's NeoWave and would highly recommend it to anyone with a serious interest in Wave Counts. I do not know anything of Scott Carney and his harmonic waves.

Many thanks again for your nice comments.

Kind regards,

Tim
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ShahrozLodhi
2 years ago
good one sir
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franciskim
2 years ago
not sure if this is a correct way to update your chart:
snapshot
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timwest PRO franciskim
2 years ago
Looks good! I was thinking of updating it - thanks for taking care of that!!
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