Gold on unusual Bullish spikes / Ultimate Top near

OANDA:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
General thoughts regarding the trend: DX finally found the Support and yielded meaningful recovery attempt however Gold is still Trading within Bullish territory. When DX was on decline with same values it has spiked upwards throughout yesterday's session, Gold delivered almost #30-point recovery. Yesterday's session was in the same manner last one for the Month where Buyers should liquidate their orders and even though both Technically (critically Overbought levels and many Selling signals calling for a correction) and Fundamentally Gold should slide, Price-action is not falling more and favors Buying much more (unfair sequence). Gold should already Trade below #2,020.80 Resistance now turned to Support (fair Technical value) taking DX numbers in comparison when Gold soared on such numbers. These are not normal conditions at all as outside factor is keeping Bullish bias alive. Even though Price-action widely invalidated Symmetrical Triangle on Hourly 1 chart, market speculators are preventing manually full scale downtrend. Second test of #103.500 on DX (almost (# +1.00% uptrend)) without firm downside reaction on Gold is one of the most unfair developments in #Q4.

Technical analysis: Interesting cycle caught my attention (August #15 - September #26) where current fractal has many similarities with. Selling sequence which started on August #15, found the Support (August #22 Bottom), and engaged relief rally. Within #1 session, Price-action delivered another slide, which was once again altered throughout September #1 session. Naturally, relief rally occurred, where Gold delivered #2 more declines (September #13, September #23), which represents cycle which have lasted for #42-session horizon. I have spotted similar sequence currently, where Selling sequence has began on February #2 (non-stop decline) which so far delivered #3 declines and #3 (#3 - #5 session) relief rallies. If Gold honours the cycle and repeats it, expect one more downturn opportunity towards #1,792.80 - #1,800.80 strong Support zone (which is so far showcasing strong durability) as there are #14 sessions left for the Price-action to replicate the fractal. Keep in mind that December #5 trendline was invalidated on full scale Bullish breakout, means that every time sequence was Trading widely above or below, it always touched #MA50 on Daily chart since early November, so realize the significance of #MA50 in current sequence. Parabolic decline which is ahead is just starting and is far from over. After eminent #2,000.80 benchmark break, expect approximate #80 - #100 point correction towards #1,900.80 - #1,927.80 Medium-term Support zone first, and if invalidated, #1,800.80 psychological benchmark in continuation. Fundamentally, the Fed delivered assurances that the markets needed and Powell gave more than was expected, pledging for more Years of battle against the Inflation, as long as that state lasted, DX would constantly suffer (current state) Short and Medium-term declines in form of aggressive spikes to the downside (which are luckily over).

Fundamental analysis: Constant DX weakness is postponing my Selling model and the fact that Gold still didn't peaked and dipped with a Higher High’s Lower zone, leads me to believe that it is being used as a hedge instrument against renewed recession fears. However, Hourly 4 chart’s Technicals suggest that if #2,031.80 breaks, (the Hourly 4 chart’s Ascending Channel is invalidated) and Gold should test the #2,020.80 Support in extension. It is Highly important to note, statistically / when Gold Trades on such configuration (ignoring the correlating instruments) Volume for 3 - #5 sessions, aggressive decline occurs on the aftermath (September #14 - #21, October #1 - #6, October #8 - #13 #2020. fractal on Hourly 4 chart). When the Daily chart’s Ascending Channel’s rejection point turns into strong Resistance (rejecting any recovery attempt in extension), Gold tends to pull back roughly #50 points (#1,916.80 - #1,903.80, as it did on August #20 - #27, #2020). This Price action is beyond doubt not related to the essential Technical rules, so I’ll approach with extreme caution, as any Technical rules do not apply on such sessions. As discussed, unless the Hourly 4 chart’s Resistance breaks at #2,052.80 benchmark and market closes above it, I can't be expecting a sustainable uptrend continuation. Personally, I believe these are the right circumstances for Gold to test the Daily chart’s Support zone again since DX is stabilized. Even yesterday's session being last session of the Month didn’t helped Sellers to prevail (at least on Intra-day basis). I am done with Trading for this week and will turn to next week for new re-Sell opportunities.

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