ali.se.18
Long

COT Analysis 12. September XAU/USD

FX:XAUUSD   Gold / U.S. Dollar
613 18 8
We had a lower shorting potential this week but the market did not go up. The COT shorting potential is a very qualitative value for predicting the market direction of the upcoming week. It depends on the relation to the last value.

The so called shorting potential is again the second time lower and the commercials are stocking up their long positions. Addiotionally we have Indian Celebration and Marriage season upcoming.
I'm pretty sure that the gold prices to fall to @ 1181.45 usd
Reply
QuantitativeExhaustion DraganDrenjanin
Yes and the COT will lag, so it's not always if Friday shows a +/- in COT, you have to look at the possibility of a lag or lead. With a two to three week COT lag we might see a BIG bounce that will damage all these new short traders.
Reply
ali.se.18 QuantitativeExhaustion
And additionally we have a structure level from 1180-1230 which means that the price does not have to retest 1180. It might turn around within this structure level. One more factor is sentiment low on the level of sentiment of 2000 when gold price was at 300 Dollar and then rushed up. There are lots of hidden factors, fundamental, sentiment, technical factors which are giving hints for a big gold rush.
+1 Reply
maximus71 ali.se.18
Hi, i really hope a bounce... Is it possible 1280 ?thanks for your answer
Reply
I'd wait to see what happen next week with the FED. IMO we see a pause and one more dip lower to near 1180.
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ali.se.18 maximus71
I cannot give a value where it will bounce but im very confident to say that one impulse wave will surely happen upwards. But I cannot say when. Maybe 1230, maybe 1218, maybe 1200 or maybe 1180... everything can happen. But when it happens it will possibly reach 1310
Reply
1310 is a bit conservative.
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maximus71 ali.se.18
Thanks for your answer, yes Wait and see , im sure too that a bounce is imminent but when and where, thats the question at 1 million $... :)
Reply
yes, you don't want to be in early or out early. You want to be just right or nearly right. My mark is 1286/87 and selling over 1440
+1 Reply
ali.se.18 QuantitativeExhaustion
Yeah 1310 is the highest (and conservative) possibility. Target 1 is 1280.
Reply
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