GOLD 1 live 2 die, decide FOMC interest rate .
In the wake of the Great Financial Crisis, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke introduced a number of unconventional policies, including Quantitative Easing, one of the most controversial programs in the history of central banking…but the more lasting and undeniably effective policy has been ushering in the era of “communication-as-a-policy-tool.”
Over the past decade, there have been 83 FOMC meetings, with the interest rate decisions and market-implied pricing playing out in the following way:
In 72 meetings, the market was anticipating no interest rate change, and the Fed left rates unchanged.
In 9 meetings, the market was expecting a 25bps hike and the Fed delivered a 25bps hike.
In 2 meetings (July and September), the market was expecting a 25bps cut and the Fed delivered a 25bps cut.
In other words, the Fed hasn’t gone against the market’s pre-meeting “conventional wisdom” even once in the past decade. With traders pricing in a 96% chance of a 25bps rate cut tomorrow according to the CME’s FedWatch tool, the FOMC will almost certainly cut interest rates 25bps and run the streak to 84 consecutive meetings.
traders will key in on the committee’s characterization of international trade in the wake of progress between the US and China on trade, as well as any comments about the recently-slowing growth in job creation. In addition, the central bank’s decision last month featured three dissents (Bullard in favor of a 50bps cut, and George/Rosengren in favor of leaving rates steady); any further “dissension in the ranks” would introduce an element of uncertainty to the future outlook for policy.
Analysis GOLD
H4 is moving in a triangle, the amplitude is quite wide and has not broken through the upper and lower border. However, with the formation of lower peaks on the H4 time frame, yesterday candle closed below the strong resistance zone, h1 h4. All are present for the upcoming GOLD price drop. H1 appears the supply zone in the discount channel. However there is strong news today.
GOLD sell 1496-1497 SL 1500 TP 1480
Buy GOLD around 1474-1476 SL 1472 TP 1490
Trade Safe
Over the past decade, there have been 83 FOMC meetings, with the interest rate decisions and market-implied pricing playing out in the following way:
In 72 meetings, the market was anticipating no interest rate change, and the Fed left rates unchanged.
In 9 meetings, the market was expecting a 25bps hike and the Fed delivered a 25bps hike.
In 2 meetings (July and September), the market was expecting a 25bps cut and the Fed delivered a 25bps cut.
In other words, the Fed hasn’t gone against the market’s pre-meeting “conventional wisdom” even once in the past decade. With traders pricing in a 96% chance of a 25bps rate cut tomorrow according to the CME’s FedWatch tool, the FOMC will almost certainly cut interest rates 25bps and run the streak to 84 consecutive meetings.
traders will key in on the committee’s characterization of international trade in the wake of progress between the US and China on trade, as well as any comments about the recently-slowing growth in job creation. In addition, the central bank’s decision last month featured three dissents (Bullard in favor of a 50bps cut, and George/Rosengren in favor of leaving rates steady); any further “dissension in the ranks” would introduce an element of uncertainty to the future outlook for policy.
Analysis GOLD
H4 is moving in a triangle, the amplitude is quite wide and has not broken through the upper and lower border. However, with the formation of lower peaks on the H4 time frame, yesterday candle closed below the strong resistance zone, h1 h4. All are present for the upcoming GOLD price drop. H1 appears the supply zone in the discount channel. However there is strong news today.
GOLD sell 1496-1497 SL 1500 TP 1480
Buy GOLD around 1474-1476 SL 1472 TP 1490
Trade Safe
Trade closed: target reached
Comment:
Tp goodluck