After we broke out of purple channel, price had moved to stall at resistance from weekly trend line (black line) and then forming, in my opinion, triangle.
This triangle (blue line) has a target of around 18 points from the breakout.
Right now it has broken the trend line that served as support for this rally at 1287 and is heading toward supporting line of triangle at 1282.
Price action at 1282 is a key
1) If it breaks down at 1282 it can send the price down to around 1263 which will hit the upper support trend line of channel that we broke through, in line with 200 ema. I think this area will hold as EMA50 just crossed over EMA200 around this level. This will be a good buy area.
2) If it bounces at the lower support of triangle (blue line) at 1282-1283 and send the price to test the resistance at intersection between it breaks up we can go all the way to the next horizontal resistance at 1310-1318.
Interestingly, I notice that when the RSI touched this uptrend line it bounce up and sent the price higher. In my opinion, we have to see at what price that RSI touches this uptrend line and that will be a good place to buy.
If we break the 1260, it could go all the way to the bottom of the channel around 1220ish.
Look at volume profile, this 1220ish area should hold as a strong support, noted that this pink line is a line that is drew from the starting of the Gold bull run. If it breaks, we can head lower than 1160.
Comment:
I adjusted the line at 30min TF, it seems 1288 is also a support as well, we could go up from here, if not, 1282 still stands.
Comment:
Now it has broken 1295. I think we are heading to 1310-1318. Wait for confirmation to go long.
Comment:
After many false breakout, we finally see a bullish pin bar at 1 hr. Go long with stop under the wick of 1 hr pin bar.
Comment:
Price is at the crucial point. If it breaks 1287
It could go to 1267 or even lower. Waiting for confirmation
It could go to 1267 or even lower. Waiting for confirmation
Comment:
Price has broken down!
Waiting for pull back to sell on strength :)
Waiting for pull back to sell on strength :)
Comment:
After failed breakdown, price has broken 1295 resistance and right now at 1311. There is a cluster of resistance around 1320 (red circle) which is also 1.272 fibo extension. I think when price hit that cluster there would be a pullback to the resistance-turn-support (black line). EMA 50 had crossed EMA 200 on daily, therefore, we should be buying from now.
2) If it bounces at the lower support of triangle (blue line) at 1282-1283 and send the price to test the resistance at intersection between green and blue line, and then breaks up, we can go all the way to the next horizontal resistance at 1310-1318.