Gold - 2012 fractal

On the above 2-day chart price action prints a 2-day death cross. That’s not my opinion, just a fact. It is defined by the 50-day SMA (blue line) crossing down the 200-day SMA AND price action trading under the 200-day SMA. As this is a 2-day chart those moving averages are actually 100 and 400-days, respectively.

The fractal between present day and 2012:

Those numbers and letters., look left!

1: Price action prints all time new high.

2: Price action prints lower high

A: Price action breaks below 50-day/2-day SMA following lower high.

3: Price action rallies above 50-day/2-day SMA and prints lower high.

B: Price action break through 50-day/2-day SMA and test 200-day/2-day SMA!! Death cross prints shortly afterward with rally back about 200-day/2-day SMA.

Convinced yet?

4: Price action rallies to previous lower low, $1870 or thereabouts before massive correction.

Is it possible price action continues higher? For sure.

Is it probable? No.

Good luck!

WW

Comment:

A question from a comment below came up about the break out of resistance on the 10-day chart:

After some study.. well I thought this was interesting to share. Is this break out real? Or a massive fake out?

On the 10-day chart above price action breaks out of an ascending triangle that has been forming for multiple months. Yes, if this break out is confirmed (price action finds support on the upper resistance on back test), then $2500 will be hit, that is the measured extension. Must wait for confirmation. If no confirmation, then it was a fake out and a massive drop will be seen as the main idea suggests.

Personally I believe this could be a fake out, it seems a little too perfect to be honest. There's mounting evidence we'll see a massive rally in equities and oversold tech stocks. The 3-day chart below show an orange line, Gold in USD and the blue line is the NASDAQ/GOLD. I have a 'great buy' signal printing on the stock market at this time. I've never seen it before like this, some tech stocks are almost down 60%. It is a massive buying opportunity. This chart is telling us when the stock market is massively oversold, gold will underperform as it always does when the stock market rallies. And if we’re about to see a melt up…

Comment:

Some very excited gold bugs messaging me “is this idea is now void?” It would appear so. So now is a buy? Absolutely not. Don’t FOMO.

Why? On the 10-day chart (below) price action breaks out, we can all see that, with a $2500 target. However, a back test confirmation of past resistance is required before opening long positions. That’s around $1800 to $1840.

Could this be a massive fake out? Absolutely. The back test might not confirm. Zooming out to the 2-month chart a massive bearish divergence continues to play out. Higher highs with lower highs in RSI. This follows the famous ‘pi-cycle’ top indicator printing. The amount of times I’ve ignored that signal and regretted it.

Trade active:

** 2-month Gravestone DOJI printed **

The fractal discussed in this idea appears to be confirming. Now the 2-month chart prints a Gravestone DOJI candle. Can't emphasise enough how detrimental this will be for price action. On a weekly is powerful, a monthly yes, 2-month means a massive move is coming.

On this 3-month chart the massive resistance is confirming with bearish divergence.

<$1000 will come before $3k

Trade active:

The fractal is repeating!!!

Trade active:

The 2012 fractal continues to play out. Most recently price action confirms past support as resistance.