AndyM
Long

Gold rally a few days away, taking a look at possible future dvt

FX:XAUUSD   Gold/U.S. Dollar
567 0 17
Good morning,

I was recently asked a question how to see a difference between an X wave and a trend continuation. For instance, with the multi-month decline in Gold             almost complete, how do we know that the advance out of the lows that will start in a few days will still be part of a correction?

A possible answer to this - the full correction needs to demonstrate sufficient struggle between bears and bulls. Even if we have a three wave structure in a correction, but it is mostly selling or buying to the trendline, then it's most likely just a Y wave, which will be followed by a disruptive X wave, but which in its turn will be followed by a W wave. I think we are going to have this setup in Gold             . Please take a look at a structure formed in 1980-1984 to see an example of a complete correction. Note however, than even if the structure is complete from the "bull-bear struggle" perspective, it does not guarantee trend resumption which was due in 1984, but I suspect it is one of the prerequisites for it to happen.

Anyway, back to Gold             , present time: I think the advance in Gold             will start the week after XMas             , once we see the last low in EUR (the last high in DXY             ). Patience until then.
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