goldenBear88

Resistance far away / Bearish Gold as #1,737.80 very possible

Short
OANDA:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
Gold's general commentary: Gold manages to keep the Lower levels despite the #1,792.80 Resistance zone rejection few sessions ago and stabilization on Bond Yields, and very sharp decline on DX, and the Bond Yields Bullish Gap fill and soaring provided steady ground for Gold’s decline and supports current market sentiment. Especially the fact that the Bond Yields broken the lower Resistance on Hourly 4 Channel Up (which is a good sign for Gold Sellers), makes Gold very Bearish on the Short-term, with it's own Hourly 1 chart having regained complete Bearish status for the first time since December #2. Furthest line of the defense is #1,764.80, if broken, could result as an decline with a Bottom below #1,760.80 Double Bottom rejection. As long as that line is intact, dip Buying strategy is favored, in line with the developments on Yields. Every Support rejection, Gold will have visible Buying pressure and accumulation. As soon as the new market dynamics, post Fed, find their prior balance, Gold can resume its steady Medium-term downtrend. Gold had Short-term Bullish sentiment because of Fed minutes and Biden’s “Joint Congress”, but Resistance preserved the Selling outlook, and Gold should engage the more serious traditional (Fed aftermath) decline as market (as Traders had chance to see throughout yesterday's session).


Technical analysis: Excellent Bearish development on Hourly 1 basis as Gold didn’t managed to defend the Support zone anymore and almost dipped more than #24 points Intra-day throughout yesterday's session. Selling response came as no Technical surprise as the Price-action managed to reject the Bullish motion from #1,792.80 Resistance zone, even though that the stabilization on Bond Yields is still not achieved. DX is still Trading without recovery attempt and Yields were on a parabolic decline, as their multiple Resistance tests provided Bearish action on Gold. Especially the fact that Bond Yields broken the Resistance on Weekly chart (which is a good sign for Sellers on Gold), makes Gold Bearish on the Short-term. Gold’s Hourly charts regained complete Bearish status for the first time since January #8. Key elements to keep in mind: According to my charts, Gold should firstly try to recover lost ground (as Yields are still without Support), and then make the general move. However, if #1,764.80 Support is broken again, Gold could easily dip to #1,737.80 representing the fair Technical price of Gold (Support, in the same time Double Bottom, rejected the Price-action on multiple occasions). Regarding Gold, constant monitoring is required as well as checking how the price behaved in the past when similar patterns formed (example: on this instance what did Gold react to a joint rise on Bond Yields and DX). What I spotted in the past is that the Gold loses strong correlation with DX every late March - early April and is more correlated with Bond Yields until late June - early July. It was crucial to keep an track aswell on market closing, as closing below #1,760.80 could provide me with decent Selling opportunity early on today's session. Bond Yields chart aswell has utmost importance regarding Weekly Price-action closing.


My position: Since market closed above #1,760.80 Support (because of Yields Resistance zone rejection), it unlocked the possibility of Short-term recovery on Gold, but as Price-action is within my model / Gold is looking weak and if #1,764.80 breaks, I will Sell on spot towards #1,737.80 as there is much more space for Selling extension. If Yields continue the decline, I will alter my position accordingly. I am not interested in Buying unless #1,800.80 breaks.

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