GOLD - Gravity

Everything that went up comes down sooner or later this planet.
It's a sure thing just like the cycles.

When price is starting to move down into the DCL the first red day of the decline usually has a 50% pullback.
So most probably we will tag 1535 before we turn down as shown below:

All the indicators are showing divergences on the daily chart. MACD and TSI crossed over.

The dollar is breaking up, the Euro is breaking down and stocks are in a rally mode again.
Liquidity is going out of the metals. Palladium might be an exception though.


Don't forget Monday is Labor day in the USA. Market holiday. After yesterday's drop traders of the USA will use every bounce to get rid of gold and miners positions ahead of the weekend.
So any bounce in the European markets will be sold in the USA.

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RSI was not in the oversold territory since May. After a 4 months rally it's time to get oversold again.
I haven't seen a real daily cycle low for months now. Maybe the 1st of July drop but it was very shallow.
If there is no daily cycle low I used to call the market a Relay Run Market where price is just trending up without DCLs where traders are chasing the price and buying every dip. It's like the relay run every position is sold is immediately bought buy another trader who thinks price is going up again : and it is.
Of course this will not last forever: this ends up with a crash. A 30-40$ down day when everybody is looking for the exit door.

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Quite interesting things are happening on the currency markets . The dollar breaking out. The euro broke down.

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Death, taxes , gravity.

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Bulls' last hope broken down:

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Swing high in silver.
If silver tops. The whole
Metal sector will go down.
If you are still sitting in the metals long consider: it’s crowded by dumb money who entered late in this rally.

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I started to long gold in 2019 May.

As the title said it was straight story.

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This is gravity.

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RobinChong“something ive noticed is this guy is usually too early but eventually gets it right. wait a few more days to add”
Nobody is perfect.

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NFP might push it up again but I would not try to buy the dip here.
We might be heading straight int the ICL after this runaway rally.
There was no real DCL during the last 4 months so it can be ugly. I hope noone bought /added at the top day before yesterday.

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Adding to the short position.

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Next stop is at 1493. Probably on Monday or Tuesday.

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God is holding up quite well .

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Silver looks worse. Another -3% day.
We might backtest 16 during the ICL.

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New low.

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Typical trap. Smartmoney is creating a false rally - with the rallying dollar LMAO- to get rid of gold longs.

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And now when all of them closed the miner longs and gold longs we are just dropping like a rock.

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Every possible trendline is broken of the bull flag.

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I think the DCL will manifest with a stop run below 1483 with the tag of the 50 EMA.
Than we get a bounce and a move down into the ICL in late october.

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ALERT !

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They are trying to push it to a new low. If there is a stop run I'M going to close the position in the drop.

Trade closed manually:

I'm closing the gold shorts today.
I'm afraid that the falling stock and rallying dollar combo will push gold up in the following days so a week later we can short it again from 1540$.

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Profit : 35$
From 1530 to 1495$

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Good that we’ve exited on FOMC night.
I was expecting this bounce but I don’t think it can make a higher high above 1560.

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Be ready for the next short idea.
We are going to ride the panic selling. The reward is around 100$ per ounce.

Trade closed manually: