FX:XAUUSD   Gold / U.S. Dollar
6135 62 101
First of all : good cop bad cop story worked very well in my last not banned post (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/nSzQNIkz-GOLD-FISCHERMAN-S-TRICK-THE-GOOD-THE-BAD-AND-THE-CHART/) At Jackson Hole Yellen and Fischer exactly knew that the NFP data will be weak. They just played their roles. Good cop Yellen : “In light of the continued solid performance of the labor market and our outlook for economic activity and inflation , I believe the case for an increase in the federal-funds rate has strengthened in recent months,”
Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer (bad cop) was more explicit, saying Yellen’s comments were consistent with possibly two rate increases this year—including a move as early as next month. Yellen and Fischer both stressed that any policy decision will be dependent on economic data.
They both know there will be NO 2 rate hikes this year. Maximum one. And maybe not even one...
In 2014 summer the dollar started to rally as the FED announced the next rate hike period. The dollar was rallying in 2014 but no rate hike happened. In 2015 the rally continued and peaked in March. At that time we were hearing 2 rate hikes in 2015. We got one in December (LOL) and the whole market stayed bullish . Everybody was talking about DXY             120$.... At the beginning of 2016 we heard about 4 rate hikes in this year. It's September and we haven't had even one. As I'm typing this the dollar index             ( DXY             ) is still at 96$...
Guys sooner or later this bubble will burst and I think it will happen next week when Fischer or another bad cop will announce or hint the miss of the rate hike in September.

Technicals:
Yesterday we broke above yesterday's high and printed a swing low. I was watching closely the market before the data and I saw the clear manipulation after the news. When the news came out there was a horrible contract dump in the first minute which was bought at 1306$ almost immediately. I don't know this contract dumper bought back at the bottom or he was a bit late in the dumping - hoping that the data is bad - and all his sell was bought by another big players. In this last case the late dumber R.I.P. It was an expensive game with a big loss.

So we are on Day2 today in a new daily cycle.
1 (red curve) Even if this daily cycle is a left translated we will rally minimum 5-7 days : whole next week but we are not going to break to new highs.(above 1375$) After that we will roll over into the ICL. 1306-7 will trigger the panic selling.
2 (green curve) If the dollar collapses in the meanwhile - as I think it will next week - gold             not only tag the upper trendline but will break above it making a higher high in this 3rd daily cycle. It would be right translated.
3. (purple curve) If the dollar collapse will be really tough we can break to 1450-1500$ In this case we might have a short 4th left translated daily cycle .

The intermediate decline should tag the 200 SMA at the bottom and might marginally break below it.

Indicators
RSI and SlowStoch is as oversold as it was at the ICL. It suggest a strong rally (version 2 or 3)
And don't forget this DCL has a bear trap. Sooner or later these trapped bears have to stop out (most probably on Tuesday when US markets opening again)

No question this is long now. The real question is how long it will rally...
As we are on day 2 only it's still not too late to enter on Tuesday.
Comment: Big contract dump on NFP.
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Comment: Bear trap is activated.
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Comment: 10 $ of a short squeeze.
Poor bears have a bad day today. They not only have realized the bear trap but also feel the pressure of the collapsing dollar.
We are only on day 3 and almost at the triangle's upper trendline.
I say that only scenario 2 and 3 are on the table: We are going to break to new highs.
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Comment: A possible entry could be at the 10 EMA at 1334-35$ if we have a pullback.
I'm not sure we are going to get it though.
Just an idea for those who would like to enter/add.
I will be adding there if we have a pullback.
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Comment: BOOM.
Comment: We are tagging the triangle trendline.
Unbelievable.
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Comment: I think we lost all the bears in the last minutes.
Comment: I'M taking some profit here at the trendline (33%)
Comment: we will have some kind of pullback. And we shouldn't forget about Draghi on Thursday.
Comment: US dollar index is also getting close to the trendline. If you close some profit on your gold position 25-30-35% you can still look in the mirror tomorrow.
Comment: Here is our pullback.
If we are lucky it could come down to the 50 EMA on the hourly.
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Thanks Arpi! :) If there is no rate hike, will it instead cause a rise in stocks & dip in gold? because of sentiments?
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Gold for sure. Most probably stocks also. But I would like to see a di in stocks to buy S&P or NAsdaq.
We don't have a clear DCL yet.
+3 Reply
oilyprata chartwatchers
Thanks Arpi :)
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DS77 chartwatchers
Nice call on USD and GOLD. Thoughts on NG? Looks like its breaking down.. any update?
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AhmedKhattab chartwatchers
exuse me what is meant by ICL & DCL ?
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WHAT IS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEN GOLD FUTURE AND GOLD-USD?????
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SHOULD I BUY FROM HERE ?
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You can buy but I wouldn't rule out a 5$ pullback. So don't get stopped out at 1325$ if price comes back.
The dollar can collapse any time.
+4 Reply
AliQaiser chartwatchers
means no safe trade and low profit ...
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AliQaiser chartwatchers
will it go 100% up because its facing 1340 resistance
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carli1506 AliQaiser
Only you can decide yourself, no one else!
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I am supper bull on Silver and Gold. All daily indicators showing that we will have a nice long run up. But watch out this potential H&S in DXY.
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+2 Reply
htgroup1 pbartashevich
Thank you for the analysis Apri. Very valuable to have an insightful set of eyes on commodities to clearly point different emerging trends. I'm in long with NUGT at 24.60, SL 23.30 (approx 38.2 retracement of low-to-high on daily since January). It's nice when the fundamentals (news cycles) line up will with the price action to minimize the risk and maximize the profit potential.
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Not much need for a bad cop at the minute, the ISM non-manufacturing data was the worst since 2010! lol
+2 Reply
We can experience stocks crash which may support dollar temporarily. Also, bad data might suppress oil because of demand concerns. So Gold is the least risky trade right now I think.
+1 Reply
chartwatchers PRO pbartashevich
Stocks cannot break to new highs. Oil is hesitating.
Clearly precious metals are the best right now. ANd don't forget:
it's gold season in August-September. WE will have a good month in the PM sector in this month.
+3 Reply
Yaba PRO chartwatchers
Looks like Number 1 to me. But lets wait and be certain. Looks like top 6-7th. (6-9)

Great analysis, best of luck to all.
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SHOULD I BUY AT THIS .... NEED HELP TAHKYOU
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Today's Jump was the result of more lousy US numbers, more against a hike
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Thanks Arpi for your comment on where to add. I case we don't have this pull back, should we wait for a break out to add?
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Thanks again and still in the Train!
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Silver unstoppable. Not giving a chance to add...
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Thanks Arpi
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The only thing that bothers me in today's party is GDX volume. it is sooo low for such party. Volume = excitement. No excitement over there? - fishy. The only explanation I see is it is approaching and fighting gap, so folks wait until it jumps over.
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chartwatchers PRO pbartashevich
Not sure miners will make a higher high in this round.
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newatthis PRO chartwatchers
What's your target for GDX please? I got in NUGT at highs ($150-$175 before 5-1 reverse split) and averaged down at lows but still need $27.2 to break even.
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The bull is unstoppable. Crushing all resistance levels upwards.
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Hi Arpi where should I place my first TP ?
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I just shorted on the trendline....I think its done for the day...I hope to make a few pips.....but also happy to follow the bulls if it makes me money....
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Nightstar Trendhopper
Never ever short a Bull when Momentum is on our side buddy..! You're just asking for an Ass kicking!

Forget about trying to scrounge up a few pips, instead.. reload on a pull-back. We've just started a new Daily Cycle.
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Trendhopper Nightstar
The best trader knows how to wear both hats, but I love your passion on the subject Nightstar, it made me giggle
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Nightstar Trendhopper
Giggling is good.
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Trendhopper Nightstar
I made £1.58...successful trade :0)
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Arthur_USD Nightstar
If you mess with the bull, you'll get the horns a.k.a Never short a bull market
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dear which point is for sell ..?
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Weekly bear trendline broken...
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Stop updating gold every 10 seconds and update oil more! : ) lol
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LOL. Ok. I will update tonight. untill the update just check ERX.
There is nothing to worry...
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Arthur_USD tbuckle
Gold has momentum right now, so it's worth discussing
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Folks, the only time you should be shorting Gold and/or Silver is at the end of an Intermediate Cycle, not during! Don't get cocky :)
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Very true. Shorting gold on day 3 is very dangerous. You can't beat the bull.
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SB i am a gutless money not for buying jnug. second time watching this fly without me. going rp slit my wrists asap. ggs
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Try to enter at or after Draghi's speech. THere will be some bounce in DXY.
And some pullback in gold. We are going to print a higher high.
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DXY is touching support now. My RSI is set for 27 periods: RSI is @ 91+ (this is extremely overbought). Watch out for a possible pullback now!
+1 Reply
marketpundit marketpundit
Sorry forgot to mention RSI is for GOLD
+1 Reply
marketpundit marketpundit
Correction to previous post: Gold RSI is on 1hr time frame is 82 not 91
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Arpi congratulations for the prediction of such a movement up. Could you commment FnatGas? I made a bad decision this time staying out of the gold market and maintaining large positions on the gas . I hope that the level of 2.68 will not exceeded down...
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I'M updating today
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Ther has been a lot of buying GDX after the close in the las sessions..
What does that mean?
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Nobody wants to get left in the dust.
Everybody wants to be in position.
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Hey Arpi, great to have you back ! Regarding the chart, this massive drop to the lows of 200 SMA (1250ish) is the ICL ? This is because we made a new DCL left translated and Cycle wise we need to make a new low again around October-November ? I´m asking because then its just too difficult to place long term positions in this market. Thanks
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THe touch of the 200 SMA is the ICL yes.
But I think this daily cycle will not be left translated. It's too powerful. We will make a higher high. And there will be one more daily cycle.
Scenario 3 most probably. (purple)
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RogerS PRO chartwatchers
What is your best tactic Arpi, take some profits at the top (50-75%) and hedge all the long positions from 1310-1320 to the ICL just in case in not than deep and we don't cross 1300 or take most of the profits at the top 90% and reload at the ICL hoping the decline is quite powerful ? I know its a very personal approach but always helps to vision some other trader tactics.
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If we top I will get out of gold. I will try to short at the ICL. I'M not hedging. The hedge position is confuses me , when you see a big gain on the hedge position you want to take profit and close the position. With hedge positions I always missed the top and the bottom : big green numbers makes you blind.
But holding a core position is always a good idea in bull markets. So you will always be in a long position in the bull market. Never miss a penny.
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rudykorinek chartwatchers
Arpi do you think there will be still this small pull-back? What can Draghi do to make this weaker?
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We can trust in Draghi. At least we are going to have a small spike down to 1340 in gold I think.
I'm planning to add there
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rudykorinek chartwatchers
Thank you :)
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'i think we lost all the bears'. i like your comments , post more please, cheers on the trade!
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Trendhopper Calamity
I will buy the gold if or when DXY hits 95.28...completion of bullish butterfly

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Bought some NUGT.
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What time Draghi is going to speak?
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14:30 CET which is 8:30 EST ...
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