chartwatchers

GOLD - FISCHERMAN'S TRICK (THE GOOD, THE BAD AND THE CHART)

FX:XAUUSD   Gold/U.S. Dollar
9557 99 137
5 months ago
Nomen est Omen.
FED's Fischer is building a fish pot for the fishing bears in the gold's bull market.
Actually he doesn't know he's building that : the whole story is about the dollar and FED's credibility.

Let's see Friday's happenings.
“In light of the continued solid performance of the labor market and our outlook for economic activity and inflation , I believe the case for an increase in the federal-funds rate has strengthened in recent months,” said Yellen.
A bit hawkish but in total it's the same FED movie : Escape to the future. They've run out of time. 2 months to the elections. 2 FED meetings before the elections:
September 20-21 and November 1-2 . I think it's crystal clear for everyone if they don't hike in September they will not hike a week before the elections. Actually they don't want to hike before the elections. They simply cannot predict the effect of a rate hike on the stocks market ... If they hike and we have a collapse in the market the Democrats and Cilnton will lose. They will not risk it.
But what can the FED do in this case? If they don't do the 2nd rate hike in this year they will lose all their credibility.
If they do it in September they could lose their job as Trump wins.

So they did what I would do in this case. As I'm running several businesses I use the
"Good cop - bad cop" story many times to cover myself in a losing situation.
Yellen was the good cop, saving FED's credibility : she didn' t say there will be a rate hike for 100% she said the case for the increase strengthened. She cannot say they will increase because they won't. She cannot say they will not increase because she is the face of FED and FED would lose all credibility. So the nasty work was done by Fischer 30 minutes later on Friday:
Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer was more explicit, saying Yellen’s comments were consistent with possibly two rate increases this year—including a move as early as next month. Yellen and Fischer both stressed that any policy decision will be dependent on economic data.

So the only thing they had to do to check how is the labor data 4 days before the end of month. I'm sure they have the numbers till 27th August.
And they saw the number is weak .
Thank god now they can blame the postpone of the rate hike on "bad economic data".
And in November a week before the elections nobody will care why the FED is hiking. The next FOMC is in December.
If Trump wins I'm 100% sure they will hike in December to screw everything for Trump.
If Clinton wins they can find a reason to postpone again or if everything looks fine they can hike...

Techincals
We are still in the triangle.... We had a big volume swing on Friday, but the whole swing was erased.
We rallied on Yellen's speech and gave back all gains at Fischer... So we closed the day almost at the same level as Thursday. We printed an inverted hammer again.
Inverted Hammers represent a potential trend reversal at support levels. After a decline, the long upper shadow indicates buying pressure during the session. However, the bulls were not able to sustain this buying pressure and prices closed well off of their highs to create the long upper shadow. Because of this failure, bullish confirmation is required before action. An inverted hammer followed by a gap up or big green candlestick with heavy volume could act as bullish confirmation.

Indicators
So as it's still possible that we printed the DCL on Thursday and we will be holding that level - and on Friday we will rally on the weak data based on the above.
I simply cannot predict now what will happen from Monday to Thursday.
All the indicators gave in the DCL signal. ( RSI , SlowStoch oversold) We are too early for an intermediate decline what bears are waiting for. The question is how much will the dollar rally at the beginning next week .

5 months ago
Comment: Description was too long so I continue here...
5 months ago
Comment: 1. If it rallies strong we will break down the 1310 level and tag the 100 EMA or marginally break below it.
2. If the dollar rally is just a weak rally with a stock market decline next week gold can stay in the triangle and break out of it on Friday's weak data.
5 months ago
Comment: The Plan
I'm not touching my position right now. But you have to know that my account is quite strong I can easily handle a drop to even 1250$. But all of you who are all in gold you have to use money management from Monday to Friday to survive a possible drop 1280-1290. I still think that we are not going to break below the previous DCL (1310$) but I really don't know how the banks will play this situation before the next gold rally. If there are enough bears in the game price will crawl up in the triangle and breaks out on Friday.
If there are still too many bulls first we will break down to get everyone super bearish and then they will turn the direction up with a monster rally on Friday.
I think before the data you have to be in your long positions otherwise you will get left behind at the station without gold positions.
5 months ago
Comment: [b][i]I think Sunday-Monday night (GMT) (Sunday afternoon EST) is very important. If banks wants to push down the price they will attack gold right after the open. So get ready tonight for position management....[/i]

[/b]
5 months ago
Comment: Watch how important is the green trendline - we turned down from there - the bear market trendline from all time highs. We have to break above that level significantly on the weekly chart before the next rally begins.
5 months ago
Comment: Even better on the weekly chart. We simply cannot close above the bear market's trendline...
I think if we close above that level significantly commercials will start short covering...
snapshot
5 months ago
Comment: The attack is not coming.
If we stay like this we will see scenario 2.
Watch the hourly divergencies since 22.08.
snapshot
Staxs
5 months ago
Great insight Arpi.... thank you for sharing.
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Tosharun
5 months ago
Man this is great article ever!! keep it up. Thanks for your hard works. Cheers.
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Victor.Y.F PRO
5 months ago
Thank you chartwatchers ! It is a game of patients. Let's see where is the !0 months SMA after August close.
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CagatayCetin
5 months ago
Hey Arpi, I'm simply seeing and sensing the same map here. We might hang around 1335(max) and 1320 next week until the NFP data comes. Then probably we are breaking down 1320 to 1312. That has to hold or go down to 1305-1300 (bears at their best). The price will place between 1312-1320 for two more weeks and finally break out to 1320 and 1356 after FED's redemption day 21th of September. My humble contribution:

snapshot
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Nightstar CagatayCetin
5 months ago
Trendlines cannot cut through a cluster of Candles.. It doesn't work that way! Technicals 101
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Mannnassser
5 months ago
Dear Arpi : what if the employment data of Sep. 2 was good or around 200K ? I think it would be nice if you advise on the possible actions in order to reduce losses of bulls
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PonmudiKrishnan
5 months ago
good
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ArtFly
5 months ago
Excellent analysis , thank you. For an attack to 1390 or more , we must wait. I wrote earlier about one more wave on EURUSD pair and strengthening of the dollar , and this scenario is realized . I still assumes version of adjustments to 1273 and the worst situation by 1202.... but now I' am out of the market with gold. I will try long entry just below 1310 with tight SL. If you break through SL than 1273, 1202...
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Legit_Kittens PRO
5 months ago
im on the bear side of this market. sorry. If you look at the COT report, the commerical and HFs are too leveraged for the market to fall in my opinion. I can share a chart
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chartwatchers PRO Legit_Kittens
5 months ago
Thats why we are here. To discuss and find the right direction.
I welcome any contrarian analysis.
Please post the chart or charts.
Thanks you Legit_Kittens
+1 Reply
Legit_Kittens PRO chartwatchers
5 months ago
please excuse my terrible chart documenting skills but here is what I am describing in a crude manner.
snapshot
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Legit_Kittens PRO Legit_Kittens
5 months ago
If you focus on the green willco line, you will notice after it hits a low, a decline typically follows.
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Legit_Kittens PRO Legit_Kittens
5 months ago
in my opinion, there is too much manipulation in gold and silver. look at platinum and palladium, they seem to have a truer outlook of the direction of metals.
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Legit_Kittens PRO Legit_Kittens
5 months ago
i think the retail traders may get suckered into the hot hand fallacy.
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Legit_Kittens PRO
5 months ago
Arpi you are always on point with your analysis. this is one of the only time im an antagonist.
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javid-ati
5 months ago
hi
Thanks for the nice analysis
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epalazzo
5 months ago
Addition to FED and their credibility question: http://www.thedailybell.com/news-analysis/is-the-fed-being-torn-down-in-order-to-create-a-new-powerful-global-entity/
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waterman
5 months ago
I read the whole story like watching a hollywood suspense thriller. Well done and congrats. No one covered the fed drama with such a deeper insight. Congrats and congrats.
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pbartashevich PRO
5 months ago
Yellen is speaking at 9:30EST on Monday. I think this about to support the markets and fix what Fisherman did. If they were to crush them - they already got that, no need for another speech. I think Gold will be somewhat calm overnight waiting for next performance and then go up as she speaks.
+1 Reply
Mitasse
5 months ago
They clearly do not want to increase rates in september.google: " St. Louis Fed President: U.S. Has Weathered Global Risks". All in all this is a poor job by federal reserve people to confuse markets like this. Fisher went too far last Friday to call a september hike imo..
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pbartashevich PRO
5 months ago
I cannot find when they announced that Monday's Yellen's speech. Was after market close on Friday?
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Viking83 PRO
5 months ago
Creative chart title. So far the lower triangle trendline has held good resistance. The key will be how significant the USD rally will be next week. I think it will rally towards 96,5 to lure all long in the USD before it turns sharply. Gonna be exciting.
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webmiztriz PRO
5 months ago
wow.. thank you for all that robin hood ;)
+3 Reply
JaroslawStefaniak
5 months ago
Dear Chartwaters, I agree with your approach. If 1310 holds, we will still be in bull market, but taking into account hudge doji on Friday, pointing to a move downstairs, break of 1310 could not be temporary and could wash out all longs even to 1,200. Look at USD/JPY, where the move looks impulsive and as I see from recommendations, 101 is now pointed out as purchase level. So the week will for sure be interesting. Thanks a lot for your in-depth insight. stefaniak.jaroslaw@interia.pl from Poland.
+1 Reply
649bruno
5 months ago
I appreciate your work. It is always well done. I am bullish for XAUUSD simply because I don't see lots of selling despite the Fed. They (the Fed) are sure going to reap the whirlwind of what they have sown. In times like these the psychological aspects (Fractals) help me keep the faith because these (Fractals) are pure emotion and non-linear. Thanks for all of your great work. Don.
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watsonzou26
5 months ago
I see gold will go down further.


Gold: very bearish signal here.
+1 Reply
olegleo PRO
5 months ago
Thank you Arpi for you (as usually) great analysis. I'm looking for a Long Position in gold, but not yet. Will wait until miners will draw a divergence for a long entry, usually miners "fealing" up/down corrections sooner (you said it to me some months ago :)).
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Thanks for your opinion. Good analysis What is DCL on your charts?
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epalazzo GrantShuttleworth
5 months ago
It means Daily Cycle Low. Do a google search on trading cycles (daily, intermediate etc).
+1 Reply
alanprotrader
5 months ago
low volume on the london and NY sessions. We are waiting a big move up this week.
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adyshul
5 months ago
Like Arpi was saying a few weeks ago .. sell the news .. in this case I'm waiting for the bad news, the only problem is when we get the bad news ? I'm giving it a month or two and bad news will come .. this is my opinion but can be different. The things they show are like a clean house with the dust and garbage under the carpet ...
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andrej123456
5 months ago
Thank you for the chart. I have hedged my long with short, before in the case we could break resistance at 1310. When do you think the rally would start ?
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avento
5 months ago
>And they saw the number is weak

FED interested to keep neutral stability in Dollar exchange rate and on Stock markets as long as possible before the Elections.
I guess NFP data will be released by expectations (or even a bit better), in order to extend the intrigue with Hike several weeks more, and thus keep dollar from free falling.
I am sure that in the interests of national security and markets stability nothing prevents them from short-term distorts in Statistics.
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lbg01 PRO
5 months ago
any idea what was that big after hours trade block on the miners (GDX) yesterday?
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UNLIMITED
5 months ago
can it be that you have all of my comments that I posted in august simply deleted...? I find nothing from me...
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bertcoin PRO
5 months ago
Looks like its trying to do Scenario 1 a little later than expected. Money management kicking in. Stopped out half. Will re-enter later. Anything special about the 6th daily cycle making it average shorter or longer than other cycles? Early September for the DCL?
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TexasTower85 PRO bertcoin
5 months ago
That 2nd scenario will only come to play if the jobs report is bad. If its in line or or even worse beats expectations...look out below
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dmz
5 months ago
Arpi's account has been banned on TradingView. Please email them and ask to re-instate, is ridiculous. We're in the middle of trades and TradingView has banned a top follow.
+1 Reply
dmz dmz
5 months ago
Check Apri on twitter for updates: https://twitter.com/ArpiKerenyi
+1 Reply
ice_holly01 dmz
5 months ago
Thank you so much for the updates and I appreciate!
+1 Reply
archie123 dmz
5 months ago
Thanks for passing along the information regarding Arpi's tradingView account being frozen. Not a twitter user but will try to follow there. Hope you do come back to tradingView.
Wish the TradingView folks would unlock the account !!!
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JohnnyDrama dmz
5 months ago
TY DMZ
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admin PRO dmz
5 months ago
Please see the explanation below.
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PF7
5 months ago
Arpi
Are you still holding GDX & GDXJ or did you get rid of them?
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PF7
5 months ago
Messages from Arpi on Twitter:

"Yesterday morning Tradingview banned me as I logged in into my account on my collegues' computer who also has account at tradingview. Tradingview is supposing that I made the 5000 views and 100+ likes with a fake account on the post "The Good , The Bad and the Chart" post. So I cannot post, or update my posts for one week. I contacted them that we are in positions with followers and this is ridiculous, but nobody cares about that. So I will post updates here and will decide to go back later or not."
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ChokoloskeeChicken PRO PF7
5 months ago
NOOOOOO!
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vikingaskepp PF7
5 months ago
Can't help wondering if that is the real reason.

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admin PRO vikingaskepp
5 months ago
See below.
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Annette PF7
5 months ago
Arpi you are so many followers that you could build your own network even without trandingview ;)
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PF7
5 months ago
For more please see:
https://twitter.com/ArpiKerenyi
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Biggles PF7
5 months ago
The only reason I come to tradingview is to see Chartwatchers charts :(
+3 Reply
bertcoin PRO Biggles
5 months ago
Me too! It was a google of gold cycles back in June that linked right to Arpi's ideas. He'll be back....
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mrk1 PRO bertcoin
5 months ago
Me too! I was waiting for his updated chart all day. How do we contact tradingview to ask them to reinstate Arpi.
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DMS mrk1
5 months ago
support@tradingview.com
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toothless DMS
5 months ago
I sent an email to unblock the page, I think we all should as well.
+1 Reply
JohnnyDrama toothless
5 months ago
Done :)
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BinaryStylus JohnnyDrama
5 months ago
I wrote to them

"I very much like Chartwatchers, along with other big names like TnTSunrise and SwissSignal. Chartwatcher adds greatly to your site. There seems to be a large number of us who log in specifically to read his stuff. I was a little distressed to see he was unable to update his content. He is good for your site, in my opinion.

Also, as I am sure you are aware, Gold, is going through something very important at the moment. GDX is in a stressed position, and the FED and this Friday's NFP are all coming together to create a storm that needs to be navigated.

There are some really exciting positions being taken, and things are developing fast. This is great fun. And I'd really like to have Chartwatchers going again so that I can watch the drama of his predictions unfold, with his thoughts on those."

But - Thanks Chartwatchers - I've really enjoyed you input, analysis and comments. You are very kind to share this stuff with us.
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JasperForex PRO BinaryStylus
5 months ago
See below.
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djsquid Biggles
5 months ago
This is just unbelievable!
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JasperForex PRO djsquid
5 months ago
See below.
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admin PRO PF7
5 months ago
I’m not convinced that discussing this publicly is the right thing to do, but I need to comment on the situation. As you all know, duplicate accounts are strictly forbidden on TradingView. There are good reasons for that, check this blog post for more info http://blog.tradingview.com/?p=1848. Account @chartwatchers was temporarily banned due to suspicions of using several accounts. The author was informed what can be done to show the duplicates are in fact real accounts. If this happens we are ready to listen, confirm it, remove the ban and apologize if needed. However we have not received such information at this time.

I want to emphasize that this measure will be taken with each user who will try to manipulate the rating system, regardless of the extend of the manipulation. We never stated that ALL likes and views @chartwatchers received were given by duplicated accounts. At the same time we have never missed and will not miss the actual fact of a violation. We do this specifically for our community, so the users can trust the content they see on TradingView.

We, the moderators and founders at TradingView, do this hard work because first and foremost we are committed to honesty and transparency. We truly treat every member the same - regardless of status, followers, reputation, how much pressure they apply to us or whether they have paid plans. On the social piece of TradingView, everyone is treated equally, fairly, and everyone is expected to follow the rules.

It’s hard to find this level of openness and transparency in any other community. We uphold this approach from day one and we are proud of it. Moderators and founders are always online and can answer your questions pretty much at any time. Feel free to address any and all types of issues with us.

Thanks for your understanding.
Founders and moderators at TradingView
+3 Reply
dmz admin
5 months ago
As a member of the community, I can say now the larger concern is not about some fake votes or views, but rather if someone you're following is going to vanish mid-trade due to over policing. People are following trades with real money and are relying on consistent updates on the trades. It's not like blocking a twitter account and finding out you missed the latest Anthony Weiner scandal.

Additionally, I think the practice of banning an account like this, is a poor one and actually lacks transparency. There really should be 'verified' accounts and 'non-verified' accounts. This way a follower can see that an account is not verified and understand the risks of taking on any of their ideas. Also, if an account is in question to be banned, it should be done so with a grace period and a notice to the community. A notice such as "This user is pending a required verification process and must submit required material by xx-xx-xxxx to maintain active status". This way anyone in trades will have a chance to act accordingly and again, understand the risks involved.

I think given the comments here and likely, the emails received, that it should be enough evidence in the value of chartwatchers to the community and hopefully enough to re-instate his account.

+7 Reply
admin PRO dmz
5 months ago
Thank you very much for the feedback and suggestions. As i mentioned above we truly treat every member the same - regardless of status, followers and reputation. If somebody does not follow the rules - the ban will be applied. But i really like the idea to make the process more transparent for the community. We'll take it into account.
+3 Reply
USSRandolph dmz
5 months ago
I like your thinking. Excellent ideas. Maybe too, there could be an indication on the page stating "account verified", or the opposite, "Account not verified". Either way, increased transparency and clarity would be good.
+1 Reply
JasperForex PRO dmz
5 months ago
I am asking everybody to be a little patient and wait for admin to come with his next statement. Meanwhile, since people are asking for transparency and clarity, I can provide a short update with some facts. Several hours ago we received a confession about the creation of a fake (duplicate) account by chartwatchers. This account was actively used to:
-Follow himself;
-Post (very) positive comments to himself;
-Like a bunch of his own ideas.

This is strictly prohibited by the house rules, which he agreed to follow. Manipulating one´s reputation score creates an improper advantage towards members who do follow the rules.

His current ban is 1 week (of which we have 4 more days to go), which is the standard way we deal with these situations regardless of the extend of the manipulation. This would also imply a correction to the reputation score. We communicated more about this in a blog post several months ago: http://blog.tradingview.com/?p=1848.
+1 Reply
vikingaskepp admin
5 months ago
I see. I can't say that I understand the duplicate account thing fully, that's to say; how it works and how one can know, or prove who is behind the actual typing.

I just want to say that I've been reading chartwatchers for a few months and I keep reading because I find his texts interesting, well researched and sometimes entertaining.

Likes or no likes I think he would get views and followers if he published on his own website or in cooperation with some magazine.
I also found this thread when googling gold. I do hope you find the information you have asked for soon.

Another suggestion is to decrease the focus on likes, followers etc if there is a peril of faking it. I at least follow for the content. (But I'm over 50:-)

Swedish journalist and literature student.
+1 Reply
admin PRO vikingaskepp
5 months ago
Hey @vikingaskepp, thank you very much for the comment. Thank you for being with us.
+1 Reply
monicaswkk PRO admin
5 months ago
Arpi's followers come here for the content and the knowledge he kindly shared with us, not based on the number of likes or the reputation score. This place is not youtube or instagram. My suggestion is before banning any account, maybe do some research on the track record of the author, historical posts, interaction with the followers, and the value he brings to the community. Do you have any statistics on your top 10 or 20 authors who ever used duplicate account to artificially inflate the reputation score? Probably none. Because they don't need to. What is the motive?

BTW in case you don't know, Arpi mentioned many times that tradingview is the best he has used.
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admin PRO monicaswkk
5 months ago
@monicaswkk once again, we truly treat every member the same - regardless of status, followers, reputation, how much pressure they apply to us or whether they have paid plans. On the social piece of TradingView, everyone is treated equally, fairly, and everyone is expected to follow the rules. We DO track all the authors from the top list and any of them will be banned immediately if he uses duplicated accounts to inflate the rep score. At this moment probably 20 account from top 200 list were banned because of this violation.

And this is exactly why TradingView is the one of the best.
+1 Reply
JasperForex PRO monicaswkk
5 months ago
Adding to the comment by admin, of the accounts banned for this violation, 4 were in the top 20 and 1 in the top 10.
+1 Reply
ma.sanjuy admin
5 months ago
hello admin.... i rcvd an email stating that some one has commented to my yesterday post..... https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/nSzQNIkz-GOLD-FISCHERMAN-S-TRICK-THE-GOOD-THE-BAD-AND-THE-CHART/?utm_source=notification_email&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=notification_reply#tc443601... but i am not able to see any comment/ reply to my post. would appreciate if you could kindly make public my post as well the reply made to my post... this would be good for transparency sake.
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So, Arpi, when I saw the break to the downside, I sold 5/8 of my position and am so thankful for your chart! I am ready for the next move with powder to spare. Thank you!
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Chris_T ChokoloskeeChicken
5 months ago
What kind of Mickey Mouse nonsense is this? He got banned for having too many followers and likes? Yeesh.
+1 Reply
admin PRO Chris_T
5 months ago
See above.
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mjk123 admin
5 months ago
this is really strange and quite disappointing for all the 'real' followers. i hope this will be resolved soon.
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admin PRO mjk123
5 months ago