cbud
Short

Gold wave (iv) is satisfied at max valid ratio confluence - Sell

FX:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
318 1 12
If you've been watching on the 3 and 5 minute charts all day, today we had a big clean 5 wave rally with a Triangle in the wave 4 position after hours. That Yellen talk yesterday really caused havoc with the analysis, but today it settled down with the exception of that high narrow triangle that formed in the wave 4 position.

The 1249.04 very tight confluence level that was in the last published idea is now fulfilled for a clean Wave c with 5 very clear waves up. This is the equivalent of 1251.5 in the GC             August contract.
All EW patterns that end in C must end in 5 waves.
It so happens that this one has put in 5 clean waves up into a ration confluence calculated off the NFP strong milestone low from last week, which is the origin of wave 3 of C up. My calculation levels can be seen in the previous post.
This is a Big Time Short bias for me until and unless it does something crazy like take out 1249.04 with a giant Bull candle, which will make me reevaluate pretty much everything. I'm going to say I'll be dead wrong with a strong move over 1249 (which would probably turn into support - and a nice Long scalp). So that's about $1.46 of wiggle room for my ego at current prices.

Yes, anything can happen and it could rally beyond belief from this level, stacking extending 5 wave patterns and completely invalidate everything I've posted for Gold             .
But at this moment in time, we've got all the ingredients for terminating a corrective wave in a wave 4 position and exactly to the tick ration confluence that was calculated 5 days ago.
5 waves up on the 5 minute horizon and 5 waves up on this 2 hour chart in the wave c position following a leading diagonal in the wave a position. With an unbound oscillator divergence.
I don't think it gets much more clear cut than this in the EW and Fibonacci world.

Bearish Expansion first target calculations are shown on the chart and put the first target at 1195.34.
So the trade here is short to that level. We're less than a $1.50 off the resistance level , so I'm guessing an incredible Reward to Risk ratio for this trade. Stops for an hourly horizon trade are most sanely behind 1260 May 20 highs. Shorter horizons, follow your plans.

Follow your trading plans and wait for valid short setups on shorter horizons. May the Bears be with you.
Thank you really good chart.
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