cbud

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About me An Auction Market fractal theory trader. Greater emphasis on confirming important prices based on Volume structures. Uses Auction and Fibonacci methods with Elliott terminology.
Joined Phoenix, AZ, US
Markets Allocation
74 % stocks 5 % commodities 3 % forex 18 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
XAUUSD 18% | 7 T 13% | 5 FTR 7% | 3 GSK 2% | 1
cbud cbud FRT, W, Short ,
FRT: "Greatest eREIT in the world" stable in weekly price, no buyers
12 0 3
FRT, W Short
"Greatest eREIT in the world" stable in weekly price, no buyers

I saw a Seeking Alpha article touting FRT as the greatest eREIT in the world. Large scale volume and TPO footprint certainly backs up that claim. This thing is just a monster for big funds to own apparently. They keep searching higher for greater value areas. That search seems to have halted in 2016 for now. It's testing the previous 2015 value area and from ...

cbud cbud GME, W, Short ,
GME: Gamestop is unbalanced thusfar and moving lower below last POC
17 0 3
GME, W Short
Gamestop is unbalanced thusfar and moving lower below last POC

Someone asked me to look at GME as a long term Bullish opportunity. I looked at the Weekly chart and needed to go no further. I don't like the way the GME weekly chart looks for a bullish case - yet. I see a huge congestion or TPO area in the Yellow box. The POC blue horizontal line is violated in Dec 2016 and showing some support, but the momentum pattern is ...

cbud cbud FTR, D,
FTR: Frontier not done with decline, but could be Spring rally start
43 0 6
FTR, D
Frontier not done with decline, but could be Spring rally start

Painful decline from the multi-year highs in 2015. FTR is showing a very clear 5 waves down from 2015 for a wave A, signaling a ZigZag completion. Looks like that's what it's giving up with an Expanded Flat B wave and into an Ending Diagonal C wave. The Ending Diag should have 5 waves of 3 in each leg and that's exactly what there appears to be. Color coded of ...

cbud cbud HCN, 30, Long ,
HCN: Welltower a decent long gamble coming up
18 0 4
HCN, 30 Long
Welltower a decent long gamble coming up

I've been tracking HCN for long term ownership and farming. The fundamentals are well covered and it's a Wall St. darling for cash flow along with O and a handful of others. So I don't expect any funny business with the accounting is all. From the 2016 lows I count a Leading Diagonal (not shown in chart) for wave 1 (wave 5 of 1 is shown on chart) Then an ABC ...

cbud cbud F, W, Short ,
F: Ford trending down back into $9 multi-year weekly
32 0 3
F, W Short
Ford trending down back into $9 multi-year weekly

Someone asked me to look at Ford. I see an impulse motive off the government TARP stimulus in 2009. Then the milestone into a W wave down show a 3 wave Zigzag for the 2011 lows. From there it's gone sideways and declining since 2013 into a complex pattern... Which I think, based on where the momentum swings and milestones fall, as a WXY pattern with the X wave as ...

cbud cbud CTL, W, Long ,
CTL: Century Link ending a multi-year complex correction
29 0 4
CTL, W Long
Century Link ending a multi-year complex correction

I count a WXYXZ pattern from 2000. Previous trend before the tech crash was Up. This pretty much mimics the entirety of US consumer real income. When people have money, they splurge on cable TV. And it's been sideways for 17 years, rising and falling at the whim of the Fed. It's been a pure economic joy to be a Gen X'er lemme tell ya. Boomers had all the fun and ...

cbud cbud BXMT, W, Short ,
BXMT: Blackstone not in a place to Buy
11 0 4
BXMT, W Short
Blackstone not in a place to Buy

Someone asked me to look at BXMT. Now I know that the Fed just nixed a rate raise, and that should be Bullish for a financial biz. However, the waning momentum and oscillators peaking and milestone count and position say that BXMT is more probable to fall into that untested 2013 spike bottom to the left near 20.50. I do realize that my leading diag structure in ...

cbud cbud NS, D, Long ,
NS: NS in uptrend until 61 or 65
10 0 3
NS, D Long
NS in uptrend until 61 or 65

2016 NS rally can only be counted as a WXY I think without breaking any rules. However, the momentum pattern is very clearly a motive wave with a failed 5th wave Ending Diag in Blue trendlines. Either way, it's a sharp steep rally. Sticking to the rules of Elliott though, after WXY I expect another WXY. If that's the case, then we should see matching momentum ...

cbud cbud NGG, D, Long ,
NGG: NGG could be ending a multi year ABC and ready to rally
12 0 5
NGG, D Long
NGG could be ending a multi year ABC and ready to rally

I can't show higher timeframe weekly count in TView for same post, but the lows right now are in momentum alignment with a 4th wave matching a 2nd wave from 2010. Could possibly be forming a Bullish Leading Diagonal (which unfortunately will look corrective in character in the Bullish direction). So just wait for a strong pop above, say 60, because it should be ...

cbud cbud GILD, D, Long ,
GILD: GILD may be ending a WXY pattern
108 5 5
GILD, D Long
GILD may be ending a WXY pattern

A Seeking Alpha article based on GILD fundamentals popped up in email. The chart says it's clearly made 2 groups of 5 waves downward and roughly symmetrical down from the highs at 123. Which is a corrective ABC pattern. The X wave rally was a good effort, but has obviously failed. So the pattern could terminate as ABC-X-ABC or WXY. The oscillator trend ...

cbud cbud JUNO, 15, Long ,
JUNO: Juno setting up an ABC long
47 0 2
JUNO, 15 Long
Juno setting up an ABC long

Not really sure what Juno does, but it looks beautiful on the 15 and 3 min charts IMO. It will very likely fall hard on the 3 min chart as lower support line breaks by end of day today 10/24. Which is in itself a short trade with a target at 28 with great Reward ratio. This will eventually potentially set up a 15 min buy opportunity in an ABC pattern ...

cbud cbud FTR, 15, Long ,
FTR: FTR putting in the first Bullish impulse up in a Long time
38 0 2
FTR, 15 Long
FTR putting in the first Bullish impulse up in a Long time

FTR Bounced after a 2nd touch exactly on daily channel support. Subsequently had a strong move up and looks to have completed a 5th wave Ending Diag. I am watching for a simple ABC first correction to try and catch a strong 3rd wave up into the 4.50 area. Doesn't look right now that we'll see an expanded flat, so I'm anticipating a Flat or ZigZag to complete ...

cbud cbud T, 15, Long ,
T: Looking for a Triangle breakout gap up in T tomorrow
32 0 1
T, 15 Long
Looking for a Triangle breakout gap up in T tomorrow

I'm interpreting T on the 15 min chart to be a Leading Diag with a Contracting Triangle in the Wave B position. So looking for a gap up tomorrow morning and to get long on any clear 3 wave correction, perhaps into 39.43 area at that purple dash channel 50% line, also near the Triangle descending upper trendline. Trading for a move up into the Red upper channel ...

cbud cbud EXC, 180, Long ,
EXC: Impulse wave off an A-TriangleB-C in EXC forming
7 0 1
EXC, 180 Long
Impulse wave off an A-TriangleB-C in EXC forming

First rally up in what is looking to be a clear impulse pattern off a clear A-ExpandingTriangleB-C corrective decline. Any 3 wave corrective patterns on the 15 min timeframe into a wave iv or 2 as labeled could be corrections into a wave C rally into 40.80 or the upper Blue trendline across the highs around 38.28. For now the overall Daily structure is ...

cbud cbud T, 15, Long ,
T: T has been making a potential Leading Diag
7 0 1
T, 15 Long
T has been making a potential Leading Diag

After the preceding C leg short trade to target the spike formed on the low. Subsequent price action in the past 2 days has been sideways, but could be a Leading Diag wave 1 up. So wave 2 pullback coming shortly on the 15 min chart here, maybe into 38.85 or .70. I like the A-TriangleB-C preceding pattern into channel support as a recount from my previous ...

cbud cbud GSK, 120, Long ,
GSK: GSK only falling in a corrective pattern
19 0 1
GSK, 120 Long
GSK only falling in a corrective pattern

On the hourly timeframe, the decline in GSK beginning in Aug 2016 can't be counted as an impulse for sure. Maybe it's a leading diagonal that I'm not seeing, but I believe probabilities are best interpreted as a WXY pattern as labeled. Which implies it is a 2nd X wave down in a larger WXY (Ending Diagonal) pattern depending on how you interpret the Feb lows. I ...

cbud cbud PSEC, 240, Long ,
PSEC: Could get a pop in PSEC
10 0 3
PSEC, 240 Long
Could get a pop in PSEC

Any EW'ers out there, I'd appreciate your input into PSEC and the rest of the BDCS composite ETF. There may be a C wave up termination as an Ending Diagonal completing in PSEC. Lots of overlap throughout the structure. I'm anticipating one final motive rally pattern up, perhaps an Ending Diag as wave 5 of C. Targeting 8.87 or as high as 9.61. Currently, the last ...

cbud cbud CL1!, D, Short ,
CL1!: Triangle and overlaping patterns implying a wipeout in Crude
158 0 1
CL1!, D Short
Triangle and overlaping patterns implying a wipeout in Crude

Clear impulse off the Feb lows. Followed by 3 waves down. And what is currently A-TriangleB-C pattern up in a rally. Fib cluster resistance at 53.03. The simplest resolution is a strong C wave down below 40. Rallies in Crude and US equities for the next few weeks. After that, not a compelling Bullish situation for Crude or the rest of the US Equities as Crude ...

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