chartwatchers
Long

GOLD - Lightspeed

FX:XAUUSD   Gold / U.S. Dollar
12672 229 102
Lightspeed
1. The speed of light in vacuum, commonly denoted c, is a universal physical constant important in many areas of physics.
2. Lightspeed is a point-of-sale software provider based in Montreal, Canada.
3. Lightspeed, is a 2006 superhero film directed by Don E. FauntLeRoy.
4. Lightspeed was gold's rally on the 21st September.
Happened exactly what I was warning bears last week : we will give back many days of short gains in one day.
So today we erased 6 days of short gains. By the end of the day only those bears were at break even who sold their shorts on the 2nd day of this decline. I can tell you that these bears are below 10%. The most of them sold the shorts later. This is how bull market works. Slow suffering decline to support zones and powerful rally out of the DCL or HCL             to the next resistance.
The problem in selling short here is that bears psichologically in the obsession of the short trade. Even if they can close the position in time and make profit they are unable to change the direction and catch the big move.
In this case the best short traders entered at 1340 and exited at - lets say - 1306 . The profit is 34$ in 8 days. Gold             rallied today - 1 day!!!- 30$. But these short traders are not in this rally. Some of them will be waiting for a pullback to enter a long but the pullback will never come. Some of them will try to short and gives back 60-100$ to the bull as we are breaking to new highs. So that's the way love goes.

In this case we printed a HCL             at 1308. It was a tough HCL             : almost took out the DCL low but finally the DCL was holding. In the metal markets you have to know : bullion banks and smartmoney will do everything to knock you out of position. The only thing you can use are the cycles. 9 from 10 times the cycle is helping to survive the drawdowns. Unfortunately some long traders were stopped out at the exact bottom. :(
Some of them were margin called some of them were freaking out. If you trade in the metal sector it's very important that you mustn't be 100% invested. If you are trading on high margin impact big players will knock you out in the whipsaws. So try to have a smaller position (20-30% of the total capital) .

Today we rallied to the bear market trendline . I think tomorrow the dollar will continue its decline in the lack of japanese inervention . And gold             will test the upper trendline of the consolidation (blue).
And here comes the trick. As many times in the past worked the selling short at this trendline this is the time when it's not going to work. We are going to break the blue trendline and print a higher high.
The rally above the consolidation depends on how strong is the dollar's decline.
RSI and SLowStoch needs to get overbought and I would like to see a MACD crossover also. Why? Because it's a bull market and before a serious decline we need to break to new highs.

Comment: We just sliced through the bear market trendline.
Bears will be trying to short at the red arrow (1345-46) as it was working well in the past. But not this time.
snapshot
Comment: As the dollar bounced from the trendline -hopefully last bounce- gold is a bit depressed again. Gdx and gdxj is falling on extremely low volume. Dont freak out.
Comment: We are above the bear market's weekly trendline and turned down from the blue trendline.
Bears had entered the short positions. Volume is average. Big players are still in position.
snapshot
Comment: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cSHYjrSLm4w
Comment: Gold is in a clear bull flag. As soon as the dollar breaks down the daily trendline
gold will break out of the flag to the upside.
Maybe will not even wait for the dollar weakening...
snapshot
Comment: Broken.
Now let's see if it holds...
snapshot
Comment: Some people are freaking out again.
I don't see any reason to post right now because I think gold is more confused than any of us.
We are in a multi month consolidation since brexit.
Sooner or later we will have the next leg up.
I'M not planning to stop out my position , because when I stop it out at the breakdown from the range, price will reverse and start a powerful rally to the upside direction.
Comment: We had a 25.000 contract dump a few hours ago to break the resistance at 1300.
So we are in the panic selling stage of the intermediate decline. Will last for 4-8 days.
Someone is really working hard to push gold price and miners down to get a very good entry point.
I think the maximum of this decline could be at 1260 where the 200 daily MA is.
Comment: We've just tagged the 200 MA on the weekly chart
snapshot
Comment: The dollar is printing its final reversal from the 200 SMA.
And gold is still supressed. I'm 100% sure this is an artificial move of the banks to shake everyone out of long positions.
Comment: Done for today. It almost tagged the 200 daily MA.
Comment: Gold update is stopped here. Say thanks for unlimited, bjorn etc.
What's the exact rationale behind your expectation of the subsequent decline to specifically 200 SMA?
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It's just a long term plan. But the ICL will hit the 200 SMA.
+3 Reply
VirtualFax chartwatchers
I see. Thanks Arpi
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VirtualFax chartwatchers
Then, from today's prospective, I would speculate that it could happen upon back-testing of the bear market trendline
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Gold.de chartwatchers
I think first bull run towards $1,500 - $1,530 then back to the 200MA around $1,260-$1,285.. spring 2017 ?? But along the way towwards $1,500 we should get a minor pullback from $1,415/1,430 down to $1,375...
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bravo .... bravo...
*when do u sleep? ;o)
+1 Reply
In 2 minutes from now. :D
Could you wake me up if gold breaks out of the consolidation?
+2 Reply
webmiztriz PRO chartwatchers
lol... sure... I'll nudge u .... oo ooo ooooo ;)
+1 Reply
Nicely done Arpi! This is why I keep telling everyone not to short a Gold Bull in the middle of an Intermediate Cycle.. You might luck out every now and then but it's not worth it! Someone once argued with me that a good trader knows how to do both (go Long and Short).. but I would argue that an experienced trader/investor knows when to sit on the sidelines and wait for the optimal time to pull the trigger -- that would require discipline. Discipline, ladies and gents is more important than timing a perfect entry :) Unless of course you're trying to impress someone at a cocktail party, Lol!
+6 Reply
shinsky Nightstar
Couldn't have said it better myself.
+2 Reply
Nightstar shinsky
:)
+1 Reply
VRShaiju Nightstar
Nice call..! Fastern your seat belt.
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...... annnd then what? inquiring minds want to know ............ ;)
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Nightstar webmiztriz
And then _____ Shazam! _____ Gold falls out of the sky and into your pocket :)
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no .. silly .. i meant at the lack of discipline at the cocktail party.... ShaZamm? giggle ....
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Nightstar webmiztriz
Lol! I meant exercising Discipline with your trading so that you don't end up decimating your account (Directed at those that are just starting out of course). As far as Cocktail parties.. well, that's a different story my darlin' yes? Something tells me you've got a couple of stories up your sleeve, ha!

Ps: I am a bit of a silly bugger........................................ and I like it.
+1 Reply
showerreport webmiztriz
Bull market upto 7-15 of October, then BIG correction on Oil and indexes
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I like your stuff but don't think it will work out this time. I believe that we wont break above the blue wedge. at least not until 1st week of October. And even then it will be left translated and starting its cycle down. Japan and Europe, IMO, will intervene in the next day or two. So lets wait and see.
+1 Reply
I don't think so
snapshot
+1 Reply
Nightstar DangBinh
There is so much going on in this chart; I don't even know where to look. Good thing I'm sober.
+3 Reply
I was just thinking that it could do with a bit of colour.
+4 Reply
DangBinh Nightstar
I just go on what I have had done, I don't want erase them....thanks for watching
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keep it simple, you'll be better off
+1 Reply
DangBinh hasansahoglu
simple or complex - the important is efficiency, I have remembered sincere comment because I said i don't want to delete them. And finally gold can't go uptrend 1344-1347
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lol .. u crack me up.
+2 Reply
"So today we erased 6 days of short gains. By the end of the day only those bears were at break even who sold their shorts on the 2nd day of this decline. I can tell you that these bears are below 10%. The most of them sold the shorts later. This is how bull market works. Slow suffering decline to support zones and powerful rally out of the DCL or HCL to the next resistance.
The problem in selling short here is that bears psichologically in the obsession of the short trade. Even if they can close the position in time and make profit they are unable to change the direction and catch the big move."

Hello Arpi..! Take away your emotions from the trade. Always use protections - Shaiju
+6 Reply
NihalCassim VRShaiju
Yawn! Another skeptic.
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VRShaiju NihalCassim
Share at least a fair idea before trolling ;)
+3 Reply
Hello, Excellent approach. I have really impressed by your skills and kind learning signs. Fully agree that it is not time to short yet but to be honest not fully believe 1270-1280 level. What if prices are going higher and 200SMA with it. Could you look at the setup, would be very interesting to know what do you think about it. Best wishes to you for this day and good luck in all of your trades! https://goo.gl/a3TYrl
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albertwt FreshOilTrader
Hi OilTrader, how is that possible you predict Gold will be USD $ 1400+ ? on your chart you mentioned ?
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Don't you think 1400+ is real? I don't think so. Gold sometimes show us huge movement. moreover DXY seems to prepare for drop. Will see.
+2 Reply
This is how arpi works. He's passionate. He's a deep thinker. He's a fantastic analyst because he's mastered some behavioral patterns. Like anyone he can be wrong. But most of his unfavorable positions do come back in to profit. If you agree with his analysis and can take an unfavorable position for a week to 10 days, you'll do very well alongside him.

Thanks Arpi!
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Ronnee NihalCassim
Agree, it's all a ruse...just to keep everything on even keel for Hilary !! Cheers Ron....heh and thanks APRi
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Ronnee Ronnee
Sorry wrong place! Here do agree..ron
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I look at you, but deal in platinum this time. Spread with Gold $ 300 again. I am waiting for a big jump in platinum.
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Me too! +$200 on gold is the norm is it not?
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ok14 Ta-Trade
norm!
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The price stalled around this level, 1333, thought we would see follow through today. It popped, yes, before the news but after the news it flattened out. Is it because they continue to say a hike is coming just to keep a lid on things. Trying to make sense of this is not easy. Logic doesn't always seem to apply for this market. I guess it must have been what was said during the news conference. Same shit, different day. The only hiking they will do is with a football. Then punt the ball which they've been doing since last December. Ant thoughts?
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Ronnee kidbroge
Oops! Sorry agreed to wrong writer! Agree here is all a ruse! Ron
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Nice one. You expect the rest to be a fast cycle reaching a new high before going into an ICL right? But take a look at the previous bull-run. Look what happened after the 2nd period of consolidation. In other words; take 295 days from the start of each run from the bottom and compare. Last time it ran for quite some time after its 2nd consolidation/ICL.
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Arpi, don't you think there should be a pull back at least to 1332?
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charlie12 amatveev
Why are the gold miners so bearish today?
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GoldBug777 charlie12
Yeah, huge sell off.
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It's hunting for the bear market GANN-line at 1350-51 level. Almost there. Then it will stop for a while.
+1 Reply
ArtFly Viking83
Short can be even from 1375. The last bastion but we will see....Not once the market has shown that he is right
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Market have a pullback. Jst chill a lil bit. Price wont go straight forward as our prdiction. Buyer exausted and they will reload somewhere.
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And now we are below it. Miners are breaking their back. What now Arpi?
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All these people think that should only go up and never go down... just relax!
+1 Reply
Do you see we can buy now? or what"s the optimum time to enter?
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ahha lol Arpi! :) Can I press the button please?
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does that mean we are jumping to 1500:))
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Hahahaha After correction breaking the flag would feel like hyperspace for gold, ...we in a look and learn phase and in faith of Golds objective and being the evidence of that hoped for..
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off topic but any new ideas on natty?
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hi Arpi, do you think today's Fed speaker will affect gold?
hike rate talk is over for a while and Nov - dec hike may already be priced in?
+1 Reply
Good idea with a film as diversion. I've seen it so I'm taking a nap. Have a nice weekend!
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Miners $NUGT and $JNUG got absolutely pummeled today even though gold is holding steady and $dxy is marginally up..What gives?
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Profit taking before the weekend is my guess. Good spot to add more
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VirtualFax GoldB777
Miners normally lead, Gold follows. Will Gold be heading lower on Monday?

snapshot
+1 Reply
VirtualFax VirtualFax
Luckily what appeared to be H&S turned itself into a wedge: )
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bhowe VirtualFax
That was an excellent call!
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VirtualFax nnavarrete
Nice chart but some sort of comments would hurt... : )
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VirtualFax nnavarrete
That is "wouldn't hurt" : )))
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LOL @ the youtube comment! I'm not as optimistic as you but shit that be cool if this warped!
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XAUUSD - AB=CD Move Part II - LONG
1330 is a key level to watch
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VirtualFax -Andrew-
Andrew, originally, I didn't agree with you about the possibility of revisiting $1,295-1,300 area before the take off but now I have the same expectations
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-Andrew- PRO VirtualFax
It was once said many weeks ago that it won't go to 1310, but it did. It was also said that to buy positions around 1330 as the train may leave the station. It was also said that it will hit 1400 few weeks ago, but it never did. The market moves, the way it moves. Holding on to my positions cause you never know when it will break out of consolidation.

PS. Hedging at the same time.
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snapshot
Yep broke 1330
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My strategy is useless against interventions. ANd the ECB is clearly pushing up the dollar as they are officially printing.
But trust me sooner or later the US dollar index will break down the trendline and then gold will pop.
You might make 10-20 bucks as you are shorting gold if you are lucky, but sooner or later a day is coming when the dollar breaks down the trendline and gold will pop 40-50$ in a day wherever it is. If you are short you will give back all of your gains you made the last 3-4 months in 1 or 2 day.
+1 Reply
-Andrew- PRO chartwatchers
Arpi - I am capitalising on retracements with trailing stops, I still have my 3 Gold long positions locked in at 1305, 1315 and 1330 and will be buying more if it reaches below 1300.
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