chartwatchers

GOLD - Lightspeed

Long
FX:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
104
Lightspeed
1. The speed of light in vacuum, commonly denoted c, is a universal physical constant important in many areas of physics.
2. Lightspeed is a point-of-sale software provider based in Montreal, Canada.
3. Lightspeed, is a 2006 superhero film directed by Don E. FauntLeRoy.
4. Lightspeed was gold's rally on the 21st September.
Happened exactly what I was warning bears last week : we will give back many days of short gains in one day.
So today we erased 6 days of short gains. By the end of the day only those bears were at break even who sold their shorts on the 2nd day of this decline. I can tell you that these bears are below 10%. The most of them sold the shorts later. This is how bull market works. Slow suffering decline to support zones and powerful rally out of the DCL or HCL to the next resistance.
The problem in selling short here is that bears psichologically in the obsession of the short trade. Even if they can close the position in time and make profit they are unable to change the direction and catch the big move.
In this case the best short traders entered at 1340 and exited at - lets say - 1306 . The profit is 34$ in 8 days. Gold rallied today - 1 day!!!- 30$. But these short traders are not in this rally. Some of them will be waiting for a pullback to enter a long but the pullback will never come. Some of them will try to short and gives back 60-100$ to the bull as we are breaking to new highs. So that's the way love goes.

In this case we printed a HCL at 1308. It was a tough HCL : almost took out the DCL low but finally the DCL was holding. In the metal markets you have to know : bullion banks and smartmoney will do everything to knock you out of position. The only thing you can use are the cycles. 9 from 10 times the cycle is helping to survive the drawdowns. Unfortunately some long traders were stopped out at the exact bottom. :(
Some of them were margin called some of them were freaking out. If you trade in the metal sector it's very important that you mustn't be 100% invested. If you are trading on high margin impact big players will knock you out in the whipsaws. So try to have a smaller position (20-30% of the total capital) .

Today we rallied to the bear market trendline. I think tomorrow the dollar will continue its decline in the lack of japanese inervention . And gold will test the upper trendline of the consolidation (blue).
And here comes the trick. As many times in the past worked the selling short at this trendline this is the time when it's not going to work. We are going to break the blue trendline and print a higher high.
The rally above the consolidation depends on how strong is the dollar's decline.
RSI and SLowStoch needs to get overbought and I would like to see a MACD crossover also. Why? Because it's a bull market and before a serious decline we need to break to new highs.

Comment:
We just sliced through the bear market trendline.
Bears will be trying to short at the red arrow (1345-46) as it was working well in the past. But not this time.
Comment:
As the dollar bounced from the trendline -hopefully last bounce- gold is a bit depressed again. Gdx and gdxj is falling on extremely low volume. Dont freak out.
Comment:
We are above the bear market's weekly trendline and turned down from the blue trendline.
Bears had entered the short positions. Volume is average. Big players are still in position.
Comment:
Gold is in a clear bull flag. As soon as the dollar breaks down the daily trendline
gold will break out of the flag to the upside.
Maybe will not even wait for the dollar weakening...
Comment:
Broken.
Now let's see if it holds...
Comment:
Some people are freaking out again.
I don't see any reason to post right now because I think gold is more confused than any of us.
We are in a multi month consolidation since brexit.
Sooner or later we will have the next leg up.
I'M not planning to stop out my position , because when I stop it out at the breakdown from the range, price will reverse and start a powerful rally to the upside direction.
Comment:
We had a 25.000 contract dump a few hours ago to break the resistance at 1300.
So we are in the panic selling stage of the intermediate decline. Will last for 4-8 days.
Someone is really working hard to push gold price and miners down to get a very good entry point.
I think the maximum of this decline could be at 1260 where the 200 daily MA is.
Comment:
We've just tagged the 200 MA on the weekly chart
Comment:
The dollar is printing its final reversal from the 200 SMA.
And gold is still supressed. I'm 100% sure this is an artificial move of the banks to shake everyone out of long positions.
Comment:
Done for today. It almost tagged the 200 daily MA.
Comment:
Gold update is stopped here. Say thanks for unlimited, bjorn etc.

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