Potential Geometric Reversal At Low Target

FX:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar


Here is a low-probability of a geometry-based reversal using a Wolfe Waves/Diagonal Triangle/3-Waves patterns. The pattern I would credit most here is a Wolfe Waves pattern at a 2-4 Line projection off of Point-3, thus creating a support terminating at a signature Poin-t5-Prime, or simply 5'.

A similar geometric             development can be seen in Elliott Wave's Diagonal Triangle, as a simillar decline to TG-Lo would call for its signature "Throw-below".


Model here calls for a low-probability (Red) target at:

TG-Lo = 1030.20 - 13 JUL 2014.

This would line up with the aforementioned geometries, and ultimately offer a support where bullish entrenchment is supported.

IF and ONCE this level is reached, I would expect a Fib-paced reactive retracement on the back of a relief rally following a significant embattlement at that bullish entrenchment level.

As explained in prior analyses, "TG-Lo" and "TG-Hi" refer to these price level of LOW probability, but IF and once reached, tend to defined bottom/top reversal levels.


Bias remains bearish , hence the directional ticker left as "Short". Do the due (diligence) on your own. Plan your trade and trade your plan. This is all a narrow-minded analysis based on a proprietary predictive model, compared with known technical tools and methodologies, so that the rationale remains pertinent and evident to the EW and pattern traders. However, the targets are derived off of non-price events and defined in the chart independent of known technical methodologies. So again, do your own due diligence, and trade according to what makes sense to you.

I will keep this chart live and the commentaries pertinent to any technical development. I might interject with some finer granular timeframes, such as Daily and H4, as well as tightly correlated Forex pairs and other commodities .

Feel free to chime in. Objections and comments are welcome, especially with pertinent and development analyses.


David Alcindor
Predictive & Forecasting Analyses
Denver, Colorado
15 JUL 2015 - Update:

From Twitter:

"$XAUUSD continues its decline; Break below 1240.23 would open floor to forecast target @1030.20; via @tradingview"


As price continues to move in the forecast target, note that this weekly candle is holding its course. However, as a risk management strategy, I would keep in mind both sides of possible scenarios, and most importantly, I would WAIT for a confirmation of the decline via counter-scenario annulment. This confirmation event would occur at a break of 1240.23.

Once this support yields, the floor would open to our extreme target-low.


David Alcindor
Great prediction.....
+1 Reply
14 JUL 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:


Wall Street: "Gold posts its worst loss in nearly seven months"

Yesterday call:
https://www.tradingview.com/v/KgNpTMbq/#tc85957 "


The a-b-c internal wave that was postulated yesterday is coming true as of today, with a significant drop in the metal. Target remains intact and in force.


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
Hello David,
Many thanks for the chart. Will be following this one, twitter and your facebook page.


Regarding the Geometries you are following any planetary movements or cycles, as 'indicated' from your facebook profile photo ?

Keep up the great work!.
+1 Reply
Model is not using any cyclical or planetary systems - thank you for your kind feedback and followings.
- David
13 JUL 2014 - Update: GDXJ (Gold Miners Juniors - ETF):

From Twitter:

"$GDXJ eyes potential reversal @24.23's bullish entrenchment: via http://www.tradingview.com | $Gold $XAU $USD #Forex"


As per response to @Apples_Oranges91:

GDXJ/W - A similar pattern pathway as in $XAUUSD presents itself. Model favors an interim low down to $24.23 and a relief rally to the 84.72/88.68 range.


Note that the blue arrow corresponds to the model's favored directional bias before any pullback, whereas the ghost-grey colored arrow correspond to a probable rally from the current level.


The implied geometry is that of a Wolfe Waves with 5' as a potential excursion beyond the 1-3-5 Line, which by definition stems from the transposition of the 2-4 Line at the origin of Point-3.

However, and as discussed above, this similar pattern exists with its signature "Throw-Under" as defined by Elliott Wave's Diagonal Triangle.

The pragmatic geometry trader would see a 3-Drives Pattern as a quasi-similar technical event.


As indicate above, the predictive model sees an immediate support at 24.23 based on a TG-Lo which typically presages a reversal level.


Overall, the price action is similar to that of the $XAUUSD, with comparable geometries, predictive model output and proximity of a defined reversal level.

David Alcindor
Perhaps this begins to explain numerous posts that are showing up recently in http://reddit.com/r/Bitcoin about gold dealers 'rushing' to accept Bitcoin.
No doubt it looks like an attractive hedge at the moment to weather a sell-off.
... it goes on like that.
We think the GDXJ & GDX head and shoulders breakout will lead gold past the 1365 mark (as gold miners tend to lead spot price) up to the 1500 mark before anymore new lows may happen. Whether it does happen I am not sure as it would be breaking the bearish trend and be making higher highs. Good luck to you.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster Apples_Oranges91
Re: GDXJ/W - A similar pattern pathway as in $XAUUSD presents itself. Model favors an interim low down to $24.23 and a relief rally to the 84.72/88.68 range, as follows:



PS: Will repost within this thread as well - DAA
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