$GOLD Hit Low Target; Turn To BullishTargets | $XAU $XAG #forex

FX:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar

In our last technical commentary, we discussed about a completion of a Bullish Wolfe Wave acting as a springboard to a potential rally (see discussions and additioanl charts here: https://www.tradingview.com/v/HJ5t8w6p/).

What was confounding to this potential rally was the absence of two discreet, but technically crucial events:

1 - Internal Elliott Wave count that demanded a 5th wave impulsive move


2 - A predictive/forecasting model that remained unanswered via a narrow target range (1255.16 to 1255.73) defined on SEP 5th.

Combining both the elements of a missing Elliott Wave segment and that of a pending predictive/forecast were two strong reasons to hold any bullish aspiration.

Now that these events have completed, other targets generated by the same predictive/forecasting model are offering themselves to a potential rallying, IF it were to happen. I say this cautiously because all is not well with gold , and only a technical ground is used here to carry this bullish outlook to concrete heights.


Lower targets are complete. I caution the trader to target his/her own overhead targets with a tight SL, and pace any advance based on 0.214, 0.382, 0.500. 0.618, 0.786, and 0.886 Fibonacci retracement levels.

Independent of this Fib-pacing, the model has generated the following targets:

1 - TG-1 = 1301.76 - 05 SEP 2014 (Quant-Target with MOD prob of hit + LOW retracement potential)


2 - TG-Hi = 1321.71 - 05 SEP 2014 (Qual-Target with LOW prob of hit + HIGH reversal potential.


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA

Twitter: @4xForecaster

10 SEP 2014 - Update:

* * * NEW Major Banks' FX Position * * *

Re: $AUD - Considering the high correlation between $AUD and Gold, you might enjoy knowing that some major banks are quitting bearish positions on a SHORT-TERM basis

Credit Suisse entered $AUDUSD Short via filling a limit order at 0.92 (Short-Term)
(Forex intel: https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#xsmm44S00HaO5wCZ )


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
Have to admit, also bullish biased regarding latest development in West-Russia relations. Tension is higher. However, lot of parameters get together at these levels showing bullish future. Another very interesting fact is that despite the DXY rally Gold kept these levels w/o dropping significantly. I believe that any pullback in DXY will start Gold rally higher.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster fximperija
Hi, @fximperija - The only damper I have read from an analyst I trust is that China might consider losing interest in Gold as it may turn to other asset of greater interest. I would have to find that article to understand it better, but I could see that any rally in gold is not necessarily going to be associated with any new structural high attainment.

The model remains weighed down by piles of dead bulls.

Here is how I would play this one:

1 - Let $XAUUSD rally to above the 1-3-5 Line: This will prompt the current sellers to get wrung out of the retail market side.
2 - Allow price to cross ABOVE the 2-4 Line and fall back upon its upper side as a once-resistance/now support directional conversion signal
3 - Take a long side with SL at the 1-3-5, and then a Fib-pacing as indicated in the text.

I do not trade metal, simply charting them as I would look at a weather-vane in terms of risk and Forex correlations.

$USD had its days, and this may herald a reversal in the majors, on the back of a weakening dollar.

David Alcindor
+2 Reply
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